- The Red Sox are -130 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Seattle Mariners (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Wednesday, May 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Mariners vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 21-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 23-20 ATS.
Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | O 9.5 -115 | +110 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | U 9.5 -105 | -130 |
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 63.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+16.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 27 games (+13.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+13.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.85 Units / 46% ROI)
Red Sox vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
Red Sox vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Red Sox vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
| Brayan Bello | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 away games (+4.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games (+13.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+7.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 21-21 against the Run Line (+0.7 Units / 1.37% ROI).
- 21-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -9.73% ROI
- 20-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -7.42% ROI
- 21-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -1.54% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 23-20 against the Run Line (+0.2 Units / 0.36% ROI).
- 23-20 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 10.31% ROI
- 28-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.8 Units / 29.52% ROI
- 13-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.4 Units / -38.29% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.5 MPH since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 52 PAs) in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has an average fastball velocity of just 88.8 MPH this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has allowed a slugging percentage of .805 (33 Total Bases / 41 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .391 — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (46/73) against Brayan Bello this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 82% (14/17) against Brayan Bello — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to April 17th — Corey Kluber has the longest active streak at 10.
Opponents have a miss rate of 49% (24/49) against Brayan Bello on changeups this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mariners are just 0-7 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Mariners are 84-3 (.966) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Mariners are just 4-8 (.333) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Mariners are 49-8 (.860) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Red Sox are 11-16 (.407) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Red Sox are just 20-2 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Red Sox are 45-28 (.616) when moneyline favorites of less than -150 since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Red Sox are just 4-12 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .211 (185 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Mariners are batting just .175 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners are batting just .219 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .447 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
The Red Sox are batting .368 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .806 (1,132 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .432 (162 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 112 of 1,562 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Mariners pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 23 of 462 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 25 of 380 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 46% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.72 (962.0 IP) at home since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 60% of their games this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Deltoid, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D15
- Dylan Moore (Mariners): Olique, D10
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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