- The Mariners are -160 favorites vs the Reds
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo
- Reds starting pitcher: Tejay Antone
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Seattle Mariners (-160) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+135) on Monday, September 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Mariners vs Reds Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 77-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 85-54 ATS.
Mariners vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 -105 | O 10.5 -115 | -160 |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | U 10.5 -105 | +135 |
Mariners vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+12.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 49 games (+12.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 47 games (+11.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.20 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+22.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+16.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Reds vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Reds vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Reds vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Reds vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 56 games (+16.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+11.64 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.18 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games (+9.44 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 138 games (+22.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games at home (+9.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+1.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-68 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -1.15% ROI).
- 77-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.15% ROI
- 68-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -1.66% ROI
- 64-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -6.76% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 85-54 against the Run Line (+21.85 Units / 11.79% ROI).
- 71-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.15 Units / 9.43% ROI
- 67-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -6.6% ROI
- 70-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -2.32% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has thrown fastballs 75% of the time (771/1,033) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 30% (39/129) against Bryan Woo on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.8 MPH (176 batted balls) this season — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 89.3 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 16% (10/61) against Bryan Woo on inside fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .451 (41-for-91) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .342 — first Percentile.
Hunter Greene has walked 7 of 31 left-handed batters (23%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .901 (82 Total Bases / 91 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP; League Avg: .579 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 63% (32/51) against Hunter Greene when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mariners are 41-4 (.911) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 81-10 (.890) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners are 12-6 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .436.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Reds are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Reds are just 42-33 (.560) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are 12-54 (.182) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Reds are just 38-42 (.475) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .639.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters have 743 strikeouts in 3,039 PA’s (24%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mariners are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are 28-10 (.737) against the run line (29.5% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Reds hitters are slugging just .181 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds have won just 59% of games in which they have scored first at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 332 of 4,990 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 783 of 11,020 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 176 of 2,673 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 250 of 2,658 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds pitchers have won 51% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Young (Reds): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D15
- Brandon Williamson (Reds): COVID, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Covid-19, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): COVID-19, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): COVID-19, D10
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Emerson Hancock (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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