- The Mariners are -160 favorites vs the Reds
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller
- Reds starting pitcher: Connor Phillips
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Seattle Mariners (-160) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+135) on Tuesday, September 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Mariners vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 77-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 86-54 ATS.
Mariners vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 -105 | O 10 -105 | -160 |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | U 10 -115 | +135 |
Mariners vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Mariners vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+13.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 50 games (+11.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+10.25 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+19.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+9.10 Units / 44% ROI)
Reds vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Reds vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Reds vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 57 games (+15.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 36 games (+10.19 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.18 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 31 away games (+9.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+8.14 Units / 11% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 139 games (+23.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games at home (+10.29 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+3.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-69 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -1.72% ROI).
- 77-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -0.6% ROI
- 68-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -2.33% ROI
- 65-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -6.04% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 86-54 against the Run Line (+22.85 Units / 12.26% ROI).
- 72-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.45 Units / 10.23% ROI
- 67-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -11 Units / -7.24% ROI
- 71-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.65% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has a strike rate of 72% (370/513) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has thrown fastballs 67% of the time (1,123/1,676) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 98th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (629/890) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed an OBP of just .225 (227 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 19% (295/1,579) against Miles Mikolas in 2022 — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 16% (102/627) against Miles Mikolas in 2022 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 21% (172/828) against Miles Mikolas in 2022 — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Miles Mikolas allowed an OPS of just .820 (127 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.001 — 93rd Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mariners are 42-3 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 12-6 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .435.
The Mariners are 81-10 (.890) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 129-5 (.963) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Reds are 23-45 (.338) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Reds are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Reds are just 42-33 (.560) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 39-42 (.481) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .639.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .121 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .173 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are 29-10 (.744) against the run line (30.9% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Reds are batting just .140 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds are batting just .134 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 176 of 2,689 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 51% against the Mariners pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 120 of 1,249 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Young (Reds): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D15
- Brandon Williamson (Reds): COVID, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Covid-19, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): COVID-19, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): COVID-19, D10
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Emerson Hancock (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
Bet now on Mariners vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
