- The Mariners are -165 favorites vs the Reds
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Reds starting pitcher: Lyon Richardson
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Seattle Mariners (-165) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+140) on Wednesday, September 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Mariners vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 77-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 87-54 ATS.
Mariners vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 -110 | O 9.5 -105 | -165 |
| Reds | +1.5 -110 | U 9.5 -115 | +140 |
Mariners vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 74.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+14.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 48 games (+12.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 49 games (+12.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+17.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Reds vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Reds vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
| Lyon Richardson | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 58 games (+13.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games (+11.19 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.18 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.14 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 away games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 87 of their last 140 games (+24.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 71 games at home (+9.29 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 68-70 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -2.28% ROI).
- 77-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -1.34% ROI
- 69-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -1.67% ROI
- 65-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -6.76% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 87-54 against the Run Line (+23.85 Units / 12.71% ROI).
- 73-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.75 Units / 11.01% ROI
- 68-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -6.54% ROI
- 71-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -2.39% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .278 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — fourth best among qualified SPs– 93rd Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .183 (349 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .266 (644 PA’s) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .305 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (584/1,414) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dakota Hudson had a strike rate of just 62% (348/562) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 69% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 19% (113/592) against Dakota Hudson in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Dakota Hudson had a strike rate of just 57% (637/1,110) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 14% (12/83) versus Dakota Hudson when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2022 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mariners are 41-4 (.911) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Mariners are 129-6 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Mariners are 24-2 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Mariners are 42-4 (.913) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Reds are 24-45 (.348) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Reds are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Reds are just 39-42 (.481) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Reds are just 43-33 (.566) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .122 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters have 748 strikeouts in 3,054 PA’s (24%) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are 30-10 (.750) against the run line (32.1% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Reds are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Games involving the Reds went UNDER in 72% of their games (39.7% ROI) after a loss as favorites since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters have 13 extra-base hits out of 53 total hits (just 24%) against LHP over the last 30 days (24 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have not walked any of the 105 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 343 of 5,109 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 81 of 1,240 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.72 (1234.2 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds pitchers have walked 252 of 2,685 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 525 of 5,482 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Young (Reds): Hamstring, D15
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew McLain (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Toe, D15
- Brandon Williamson (Reds): COVID, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Covid-19, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): COVID-19, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): COVID-19, D10
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Emerson Hancock (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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