- The Mariners are -210 favorites vs the Royals
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Royals starting pitcher: James McArthur
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Seattle Mariners (-210) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+170) on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).
The Mariners vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 64-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 52-69 ATS.
Mariners vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 -130 | O 9 -105 | -210 |
| Royals | +1.5 +105 | U 9 -115 | +170 |
Mariners vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 79.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tom Murphy has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+12.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+10.00 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+14.85 Units / 78% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Over in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Royals vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Royals vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Royals vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Royals vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -165 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+10.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 away games (+5.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+11.90 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+11.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+10.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+10.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.69 Units / 47% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 59-60 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -0.99% ROI).
- 64-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -3.82% ROI
- 58-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -4.5% ROI
- 58-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -3.93% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 52-69 against the Run Line (-27.8 Units / -18.96% ROI).
- 39-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -28 Units / -22.62% ROI
- 57-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.45 Units / -7.11% ROI
- 60-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -1.94% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .102 (13-for-127) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 1 double play in 82 opportunities (1%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — first Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .228 (29 Total Bases / 127 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .199 (49-for-246) against Luis Castillo this season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 96th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Noah Syndergaard allowed 30 stolen bases in 2022 — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard had third base stolen on him 5 times in 2022 — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard had second base stolen on him 25 times in 2022 — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (4/31) against James McArthur over the last 14 days (4 games) — 3rd lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mariners are 118-5 (.959) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 72-10 (.878) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 18-1 (.947) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Mariners are 32-4 (.889) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Royals are just 5-34 (.128) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
The Royals are just 26-26 (.500) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Royals are just 9-75 (.107) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Royals are just 7-13 (.350) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .120 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Mariners are batting just .113 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Mariners are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 27% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have won just 47% of games in which they have scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 66%.
The Royals have won just 44% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 69%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 308 of 4,411 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 759 of 10,441 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (569.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.34 (499.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- John Crawford (Mariners): Concussion, D7
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Bryan Woo (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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