- The Mariners are + favorites vs the Royals
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Royals starting pitcher: Angel Zerpa
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Seattle Mariners (+) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+) on Thursday, August 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Mariners vs Royals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 65-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 53-69 ATS.
Mariners vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | + + | O + | + |
| Royals | + + | U + | + |
Mariners vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 81.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 28 games (+10.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+10.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+13.85 Units / 69% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+13.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
Royals vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Royals vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Marlowe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Caballero | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 +115 | 1.5 -155 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Royals vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Angel Zerpa | 2.5 -145 | 2.5 +110 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 away games (+5.80 Units / 28% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+12.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+10.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.69 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+9.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.30 Units / 40% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 59-61 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -1.83% ROI).
- 65-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -3.18% ROI
- 59-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -3.71% ROI
- 58-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -4.81% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 53-69 against the Run Line (-26.7 Units / -18.09% ROI).
- 39-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -29 Units / -23.24% ROI
- 58-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.45 Units / -6.31% ROI
- 60-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -2.83% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has pitched 13.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Josh Hader has the longest active streak at 20.1.
George Kirby has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 13.2 innings pitched — Tayler Saucedo has the longest active streak at 18.0.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .381 (67 GB hits out of 176 GBs) against George Kirby in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .233 — 0 Percentile.
George Kirby has not walked a batter in his last 18.2 innings pitched — Ross Stripling has the longest active streak at 42.1.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Angel Zerpa has not allowed a walk in his last 51 PAs against a RHH dating back to July 14th, 2022 — Ross Stripling has the longest active streak at 119.
Angel Zerpa has struck out just 12% (2/17) of left-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (4 games) — tied for 8th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 11th Percentile.
Angel Zerpa has struck out just 4% (1/24) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (3 games) — 2nd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Angel Zerpa has struck out just 5% (1/20) of right-handed batters he faced — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mariners are 18-1 (.947) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Mariners are 72-10 (.878) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 36-3 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Mariners are 32-4 (.889) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Royals are just 5-34 (.128) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
The Royals are just 9-75 (.107) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Royals are just 26-26 (.500) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Royals are just 36-72 (.333) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 27% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 310 of 4,449 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 761 of 10,479 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- John Crawford (Mariners): Concussion, D7
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Bryan Woo (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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