Mariners vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 11:38 AM
  • The Royals (62-90) are +155 underdogs vs the Mariners (83-68)
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (7-6), 2.84 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Maximo Castillo (0-1), 2.96 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Seattle Mariners (-190) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+155) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at 1.5.

The Mariners vs Royals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Mariners are 82-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 75-77 ATS.

Mariners vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Mariners-1.5O 7.5 -115-190
Royals +1.5U 7.5 -105+155

Mariners vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 52 away games (+20.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 52 away games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 29 games (+9.85 Units / 33% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games at home (+18.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 47 games (+15.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+11.15 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 68 of his last 108 games (+11.05 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 27 away games (+10.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 away games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+9.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.80 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.65 Units / 93% ROI)

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 79-71 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -1.68% ROI).

  • 82-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +5 Units / 2.6% ROI
  • 68-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -8.02% ROI
  • 75-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 0.54% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 75-77 against the Run Line (-14.2 Units / -7.16% ROI).

  • 62-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.45 Units / -9.56% ROI
  • 74-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -2.97% ROI
  • 72-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.85 Units / -5.86% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (19/30) against Luis Castillo this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.

59% of Luis Castillo’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 47% (58 SO in 122 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .104 (11-for-106) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 99th Percentile.

Maximo Castillo: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Mariners are 37-11 (.771) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Mariners are 56-9 (.862) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Mariners are 64-1 (.985) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Mariners are 44-36 (.550) on the road this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .474.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Royals are just 24-48 (.333) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.

The Royals are just 4-38 (.095) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Royals are just 62-76 (.449) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Royals are just 24-73 (.247) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .165 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .217 at home since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Royals hitters have just 625 strikeouts in 3,168 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .994 (2,219 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Royals hitters have just 726 strikeouts in 3,629 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mariners pitchers have walked 896 of 11,636 batters (8%) since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Mariners have won just 0% of games in which their opponents scored first this month (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have walked 241 of 2,747 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Royals vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
  • Eugenio Suárez (Mariners): Finger, D10
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.