- The Mariners are -110 favorites vs the Twins
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Watch the game on BSN
The Seattle Mariners (-110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-110) on Monday, July 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Mariners vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 50-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 49-52 ATS.
Mariners vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -115 | -110 |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -105 | -110 |
Mariners vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games (+9.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 22 games at home (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bailey Ober has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.15 Units / 64% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Twins vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Twins vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Twins vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +130 |
| Luis Castillo | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -130 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.20 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 69 games (+7.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 10 games at home (+0.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 46-53 against the Run Line (-10.4 Units / -8.12% ROI).
- 50-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.1 Units / -9.92% ROI
- 49-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -3.55% ROI
- 48-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -5.12% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 49-52 against the Run Line (-5.25 Units / -4.19% ROI).
- 53-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -5.75% ROI
- 47-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -7.37% ROI
- 50-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -1.04% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .110 (12-for-109) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .237 (236 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 42% (51 SO in 122 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (69/173) against Luis Castillo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kenta Maeda has allowed a .611 SLG vs right-handed batters (eighth worst)– eighth Percentile and just .133 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (seventh best among qualified SPs)– 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .439 (18 GB hits out of 41 GBs) against Kenta Maeda this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (11/45) against Kenta Maeda on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 41% — third Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has allowed an OPS of just .433 (20 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .819 — 91st Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 63-9 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 109-5 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Mariners are 105-9 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Mariners are 23-3 (.885) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 42-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Twins are 10-31 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .147.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .290 (445 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Mariners are batting just .110 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .664 (936 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .738.
Twins hitters are slugging just .371 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
Twins hitters have 792 strikeouts in 2,892 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 1,035 strikeouts in 3,828 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 259 of 3,673 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 710 of 9,703 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 281 of 3,728 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 61 of 907 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Twins vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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