- The Twins are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The Seattle Mariners (+100) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-120) on Tuesday, July 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Mariners vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 50-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 50-52 ATS.
Mariners vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -110 | +100 |
| Twins | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -110 | -120 |
Mariners vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Tom Murphy has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 22 games at home (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Bailey Ober has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Earned Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+7.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Twins vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Twins vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
Twins vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Dylan Moore | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
Twins vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Pablo Lopez | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -120 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+3.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+6.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+3.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+1.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 46-54 against the Run Line (-11.4 Units / -8.83% ROI).
- 50-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.15 Units / -10.58% ROI
- 49-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -4.51% ROI
- 49-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -4.16% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 50-52 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -3.35% ROI).
- 54-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -5.01% ROI
- 47-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -8.27% ROI
- 51-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (662/927) against right-handed batters this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 3 of 255 right-handed batters (1%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby’s K:BB ratio is 19.7 (59/3) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.6 — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (1,254/1,767) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 72% (358/500) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (386/1,267) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 37% (143/388) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 54% (152 SO in 284 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 92nd Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 23-3 (.885) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Mariners are 63-9 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 109-5 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Mariners are 105-9 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-23 (.281) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 19-2 (.905) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Twins are 37-5 (.881) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .783.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .221 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .110 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Mariners hitters have 238 strikeouts in 898 PA’s (27%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .664 (936 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .228 (2,140 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins are batting just .148 with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .472 (2,140 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 262 of 3,710 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 713 of 9,740 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 283 of 3,768 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 10 of 266 batters (4%) over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D10
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Allen Pollock (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jarred Kelenic (Mariners): Foot, D10
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