- The Mariners are -115 favorites vs the Yankees
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Seattle Mariners (-115) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-105) on Thursday, June 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Mariners vs Yankees Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Mariners are 35-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 40-34 ATS.
Mariners vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -115 | -115 |
| Yankees | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -105 | -105 |
Mariners vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 53.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Mariners and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+12.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 away games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.40 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+7.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Yankees vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Yankees vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
Yankees vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Yankees vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
| Bryan Woo | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 away games (+4.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+8.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 33-39 against the Run Line (-8.35 Units / -9.15% ROI).
- 35-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.05 Units / -10.6% ROI
- 34-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -7.34% ROI
- 36-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -1.28% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 40-34 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 7.72% ROI).
- 41-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 4.67% ROI
- 31-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.85 Units / -17.14% ROI
- 41-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.65 Units / 8.09% ROI
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has a strikeout rate of 45% (9 SO in 20 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 3rd best in AL over the last week; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Bryan Woo allowed an OBP of just .067 (15 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .287 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .067 (1-for-15) against Bryan Woo — 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .230 — 96th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed an OBP of just .150 (20 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 4th best in AL over the last week; League Avg: .278 — 94th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (84/220) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total CB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Domingo German has allowed 7 home runs on the first pitch of at-bats this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (85/183) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .111 (8 GB hits out of 72 GBs) against Domingo German with the shift since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: .223 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mariners are just 1-15 (.062) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Mariners are just 2-23 (.080) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Mariners are 24-3 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Mariners are 18-9 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Yankees are 27-44 (.380) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Yankees are 12-8 (.600) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 32-29 (.525) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .355.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .271 (314 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Mariners are batting just .121 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .226 this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 218 walks in 2,065 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Games involving the Yankees went UNDER in 82% of their games (55.5% ROI) after a home loss this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Yankees are batting just .219 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Yankees hitters have drawn 56 walks in 516 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 187 of 2,677 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 140 of 2,103 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 40% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Opponents are hitting just .228 against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, Day-to-Day
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Gott (Mariners): Back, D15
- John Crawford (Mariners): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
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