• The Marlins are +100 favorites vs the Astros
• Marlins vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Marlins / Astros TV Channel: MATV | SCHN

The Miami Marlins (+100) visit Daikin Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on July 22, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 pm in Houston, TX.

This season, the Marlins are 52-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 50-53 ATS.

Marlins vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 10-5, 3.94 ERA
• Astros starting pitcher: Peter Lambert 8-5, 3.05 ERA

Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 away games (+17.80 Units / 254% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+16.20 Units / 50% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+12.30 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+20.10 Units / 251% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 26% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.35 Units / 53% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+11.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+6.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.80 Units / 16% ROI)

Astros Best Bets Today:

• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+6.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+6.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+5.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games (+4.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games at home (+2.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 53-48 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -1.67% ROI).

• 52-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 2.22% ROI
• 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 1.82% ROI
• 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -12 Units / -10.75% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 50-53 against the Run Line (-9.7 Units / -6.95% ROI).

• 49-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -7.06% ROI
• 53-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 3.22% ROI
• 44-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -12.38% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Marlins are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.

The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .753.

The Marlins are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are 28-4 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .753.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Astros are just 20-28 (.417) after a win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Astros are 43-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.

The Astros are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 37-3 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .866.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting .253 on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 39% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .535 (1,954 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

Astros Hitting Stats & Trends

The Astros have scored 201 runs with two outs this season — most in MLB.

Astros hitters are slugging .420 on the road this season — 5th best in MLB.

29% of Astros hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Astros hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 116 total hits (just 28%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 63% this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 5.08 runs per game (259/51) on the road this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB.

Astros Pitching Stats & Trends

Astros pitchers have walked 12% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — highest in MLB.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 56% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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