- The Astros (36-21) are -155 favorites vs the Marlins (25-30)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (4-2), 2.182 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia (3-4), 3.072 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Miami Marlins (+130) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-155) on Friday, June 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 25-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 28-29 ATS.
Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | O 7.5 -105 | +130 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -115 | -155 |
Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Friday‘s matchup with 60.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 away games (+6.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.05 Units / 52% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+7.95 Units / 88% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 65% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 57% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.00 Units / 24% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 55 games (+19.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+6.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 38 games (+4.80 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 29-26 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 1.96% ROI).
- 25-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.6 Units / -14.21% ROI
- 28-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.49% ROI
- 26-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -7.3% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 28-29 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.69% ROI).
- 36-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 8.07% ROI
- 17-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.8 Units / -38.23% ROI
- 38-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.4 Units / 30.65% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has induced opposing hitters to ground into 6 double plays in 22 opportunities (27%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .000 (0 GB hits out of 26 GBs) against Pablo Lopez with runners on base this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown low pitches 67% of the time (137/205) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 52% (53/103) against Pablo Lopez this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 84th Percentile.
Luis Garcia: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
27 of Luis Garcia’s 53 strikeouts (51%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .168 (107 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 32 ABsending on a two-strike cutter from Luis Garcia. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Luis Garcia has allowed an OBP of just .132 (53 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Marlins are just 1-23 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Marlins are just 20-3 (.870) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Marlins are just 10-16 (.385) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are 20-1 (.952) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Astros are 18-1 (.947) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Astros are 15-8 (.652) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Astros are just 1-17 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 609 strikeouts in 2,185 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 143 strikeouts in 489 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .320 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .225 (4,491 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have an OBP of .269 (4,341 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Astros hitters have just 490 strikeouts in 2,696 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros are batting .190 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .184 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (1003.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .201 against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 393.9 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Astros pitchers have walked 13 of 105 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.51 (208.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
- Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Left elbow, D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
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