Marlins vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 12, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros (36-23) are -250 favorites vs the Marlins (27-30)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera (2-0), 0.75 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (7-2), 2.135 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Miami Marlins (+190) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-250) on Sunday, June 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Marlins vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 27-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 28-31 ATS.

Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -105O 7.5 +100+190
Astros -1.5 -115U 7.5 -120-250

Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.25 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+6.15 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 71% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Yuli Gurriel has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+6.70 Units / 94% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.30 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+19.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+10.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 43 games (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 40 games (+2.50 Units / 5% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 31-26 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 4.65% ROI).

  • 27-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -8.48% ROI
  • 29-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.79% ROI
  • 27-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.5 Units / -7.21% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 28-31 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -2.73% ROI).

  • 36-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 3.03% ROI
  • 18-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -24 Units / -37.18% ROI
  • 39-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.3 Units / 29.51% ROI

Edward Cabrera had a strike rate of just 56% (55/99) — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Edward Cabrera — tied for 8th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .246 — 94th Percentile.

The last hit on a Edward Cabrera breaking pitch was September 24th, 2021. Hitters are 0 for their last 16 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Luis Garcia has the longest active streak at 26.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (6/26) against Edward Cabrera — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 98th Percentile.

Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .234 (269 PA’s) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .183 (46-for-251) against Justin Verlander this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 97th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .537 (270 PA’s) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .681 — 96th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (140 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .687 — 96th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Marlins are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

The Marlins are just 6-16 (.273) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

The Marlins are just 1-23 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.

The Marlins are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Astros are 29-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .926.

The Astros are just 3-10 (.231) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Astros are 18-2 (.900) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Astros are 11-3 (.786) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Marlins hitters have 615 strikeouts in 2,212 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have 149 strikeouts in 516 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .315 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Astros hitters have just 498 strikeouts in 2,733 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have a groundball batting average of just .184 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .167.

Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .205 against Marlins pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.36 (1003.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.

Astros pitchers have walked 29 of 237 batters (12%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.71 (226.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Taylor Jones (Astros): Back, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Jacob Odorizzi (Astros): Leg, D15
  • Jacob Meyers (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Parker Mushinski (Astros): Left elbow, D15
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): COVID, D10
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Pablo López (Marlins): Wrist, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.