- The Braves are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Watch the game on BSSO
The Miami Marlins (+130) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-155) on Wednesday, April 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 12-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 11-13 ATS.
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -115 | +130 |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -105 | -155 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games (+8.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 21 games (+7.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.65 Units / 87% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+7.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 17 games (+7.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Bryce Elder | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games (+4.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.95 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+5.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 9-15 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -30.4% ROI).
- 12-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 2.62% ROI
- 9-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.3 Units / -24% ROI
- 14-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +4 Units / 15.04% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 11-13 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -7.3% ROI).
- 16-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.75 Units / 14.58% ROI
- 14-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 16.22% ROI
- 9-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -24.62% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,121/1,551) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .529 (9-for-17) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (740/1,028) in two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OPS of 1.289 (22 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .699 — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Elder has allowed a .538 SLG vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth worst)– 12th Percentile and just .150 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (eighth best among qualified SPs)– 91st Percentile.
Bryce Elder allowed a batting average of .423 vs right-handed batters (second worst)– second Percentile and just .100 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (fourth best among qualified SPs)– 96th Percentile.
Bryce Elder allowed a batting average of .348 vs right-handed batters (fourth worst)– fifth Percentile and just .122 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for fourth best among qualified SPs)– 95th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Bryce Elder this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 95th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 0-12 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Marlins are just 9-65 (.122) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Marlins are just 1-6 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Marlins are just 79-83 (.488) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2022 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 23-17 (.575) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Braves are 46-6 (.885) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .651.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 868 strikeouts in 3,180 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,484 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .617 (1,484 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Marlins hitters have 402 strikeouts in 1,484 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .675 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Braves hitters are slugging 1.000 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
Braves hitters are slugging .457 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.03 (94.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.12 (106.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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