- The – are favorites vs the –
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Thursday, April 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 12-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 12-13 ATS.
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | O | ||
| Braves | U |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Marlins vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Chadwick Tromp | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Chadwick Tromp | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Chadwick Tromp | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Wright | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+3.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games (+0.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games (+6.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.65 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 9-16 against the Run Line (-11.9 Units / -33.76% ROI).
- 12-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -1.08% ROI
- 10-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -19.38% ROI
- 14-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 10.47% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 12-13 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -1.72% ROI).
- 17-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.75 Units / 16.5% ROI
- 15-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 19.23% ROI
- 9-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.65 Units / -27.62% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has a strike rate of 73% (157/214) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (250/514) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to September 29th, 2022 — the longest active streak is 12.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (48/154) against Braxton Garrett on breaking pitches since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Wright has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (130/265) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (172/272) against Kyle Wright since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has located his fastball up for a strike just 48% (268/556) of the time since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (29/46) against Kyle Wright this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 114-19 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are just 0-13 (.000) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Marlins are just 9-66 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Marlins are just 60-15 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 24-17 (.585) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Braves are just 0-6 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .038.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (3,183 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .616 (1,487 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,487 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Marlins are batting just .217 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .675 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Braves hitters are slugging .300 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
Braves hitters are slugging .477 on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .753 (5,108 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.25 (119.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.23.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves have allowed 2.17 runs per game (26/12) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.51.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.12 (106.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.38.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
Bet now on Marlins vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
