- The Braves are -165 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-165) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 48-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 40-41 ATS.
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -140 | O 9 -105 | +140 |
| Braves | -1.5 +115 | U 9 -115 | -165 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+11.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 55% ROI)
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Charlie Morton | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 72 games (+16.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+10.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 away games (+8.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 24 games (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 81 games (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 72 games (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+11.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 41-42 against the Run Line (-9.2 Units / -8.35% ROI).
- 48-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.75 Units / 12.35% ROI
- 37-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -12.21% ROI
- 44-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.4 Units / 3.72% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 40-41 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.3% ROI).
- 54-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.2 Units / 8.95% ROI
- 45-33 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.75 Units / 9.83% ROI
- 33-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.7 Units / -18.72% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .100 (2-for-20) against Eury Perez — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .254 — 98th Percentile.
Eury Perez has struck out 43% (9/21) of left-handed batters he faced — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (34/83) against Eury Perez over the last 14 days (2 games) — 3rd best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Eury Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .173 (13 Total Bases / 75 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .386 — 100th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (326/997) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (136/338) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 95th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (440/1,062) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 95th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,030/2,260) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are 42-6 (.875) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Marlins are just 81-19 (.810) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Marlins are 5-30 (.143) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are 11-108 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 16-9 (.640) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Braves are 39-24 (.619) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Braves are 12-5 (.706) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Braves are 4-1 (.800) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are batting .300 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of .349 (660 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .536 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .891 (759 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Braves hitters are slugging .307 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Braves hitters are slugging .456 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Jacob Stallings (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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