- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 48-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 41-41 ATS.
Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -105 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -115 | -225 |
Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 78.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+10.15 Units / 18% ROI)
Braves vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Braves vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Braves vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Braves vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -120 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 73 games (+15.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 51 games (+13.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 25 games (+15.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 82 games (+13.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games at home (+13.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 73 games (+11.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 39% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 41-43 against the Run Line (-10.65 Units / -9.54% ROI).
- 48-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 11.27% ROI
- 37-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.3 Units / -13.3% ROI
- 45-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.4 Units / 4.76% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 41-41 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 55-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.2 Units / 9.57% ROI
- 45-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.6 Units / 8.43% ROI
- 34-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -17.4% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (507/702) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,534/2,122) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .395 (30-for-76) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — third Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 35 times since last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 45% (180/398) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strike rate of 72% (508/709) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (335/843) against Spencer Strider this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 39% (146 SO in 375 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Marlins are just 89-13 (.873) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Marlins are just 32-23 (.582) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 16-9 (.640) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Braves are 39-24 (.619) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Braves are 12-5 (.706) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Braves are 18-9 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 47 extra-base hits out of 180 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .662 (1,976 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .538 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .894 (765 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
The Braves are batting .275 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .787 (9,219 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 21 of 463 batters (4%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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