Marlins vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 03, 2022, 9:20 AM
  • The Braves (82-51) are -185 favorites vs the Marlins (55-76)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera (4-2), 2.45 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (5-5), 3.90 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Marlins vs Braves Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 55-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 68-62 ATS.

Marlins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -140O 7.5 -105+150
Braves -1.5 +115U 7.5 -115-185

Marlins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.30 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.60 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 60 of his last 82 games (+20.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+17.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 46 games at home (+16.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 69 of his last 120 games (+16.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 44 of his last 63 games at home (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+12.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 107 games (+26.42 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games (+6.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 16% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 59-70 against the Run Line (-21.8 Units / -12.76% ROI).

  • 55-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.75 Units / -14.82% ROI
  • 56-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -12.23% ROI
  • 67-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.8 Units / 4.09% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 68-62 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.24% ROI).

  • 80-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 4.02% ROI
  • 65-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.1 Units / 1.46% ROI
  • 57-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -10.18% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 17% (3/18) against Edward Cabrera — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (11/35) against Edward Cabrera — 7th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.

Edward Cabrera has walked 4 of 26 right-handed batters (15%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 29% (5/17) against Edward Cabrera — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.

Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (41/165) against Jake Odorizzi in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

The average home run distance against Jake Odorizzi this season is 382.3 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 398.2

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 9% (8/86) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (800/1,666) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Marlins are just 26-38 (.406) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Marlins are just 6-45 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

The Marlins are just 29-38 (.433) on the road this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Marlins are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Braves are 73-15 (.830) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 37-26 (.587) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

Marlins hitters have 775 strikeouts in 2,786 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .582 (1,090 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .626 (2,786 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Braves hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .555.

Braves hitters are slugging .304 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Braves hitters are slugging .442 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Braves hitters are slugging .445 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.1).

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Jackson Stephens (Braves): Concussion, D7
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Braxton Garrett (Marlins): Oblique, D15
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Hip, Day-to-Day
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.