- The Brewers are -170 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Brewers TV Channel: FDFL | FDWI
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-170) on Saturday, July 26, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Marlins are 49-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 56-45 ATS.
Marlins vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 4-2, 3.11 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 7-3, 3.49 ERA
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 -110 | +140 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -110 | -170 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 60.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Marlins vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+26.00 Units / 260% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+11.70 Units / 146% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.35 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 63% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 38 games (+19.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 65 games (+17.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 43 away games (+14.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 62 games (+10.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.40 Units / 46% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 99 games (+22.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 57 games (+21.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 99 games (+15.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 29 games (+14.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 60-42 against the Run Line (+9.05 Units / 6.67% ROI).
- 49-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 9.03% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.35 Units / -11.79% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 2.11% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 56-45 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 3.05% ROI).
- 61-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.3 Units / 12.48% ROI
- 43-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.3 Units / -17.8% ROI
- 57-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.8 Units / 8.7% ROI
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Andrew Vaughn (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew Vaughn (MIL) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Andrew Vaughn (MIL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (MIL) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Janson Junk (MIA) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -140 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Janson Junk has walked 2% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 99th Percentile.
Janson Junk has a strike rate of 70% (539/772) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 55% of Janson Junk’s pitches (422/772) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Janson Junk has not allowed a home run in any of the last 25.1 innings he’s appeared — Hoby Milner has the longest active streak at 61.0.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 59% (1,306/2,224) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown just 40% of his pitches in the strike zone (1,255/3,144) against right-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 49% (469/961) when behind in the count in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana had a strike rate of just 59% (1,676/2,819) in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 73-18 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .865.
The Marlins are just 80-14 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .903.
The Marlins are just 26-67 (.280) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Marlins are just 19-76 (.200) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 22-3 (.880) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Brewers are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Brewers are 80-52 (.606) at home since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .196 against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .218 (172 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.75 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .414 (172 PA’s) against LHP this month (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 34 extra-base hits out of 135 total hits (just 25%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .336 (2,057 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .471 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Brewers hitters have struck out in just 14% of their PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Batters facing the Marlins pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 33% of the time over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Batters facing the Marlins pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 36% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%. over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 5% of batters this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 56% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Batters facing the Brewers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 57% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Marlins vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
