- The Brewers (84-74) are -175 favorites vs the Marlins (66-92)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (10-10), 3.90 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta (4-4), 3.77 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-175) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 66-92 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-92 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 7 -110 | +145 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -110 | -175 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 51 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+8.65 Units / 124% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.10 Units / 73% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Garrett Mitchell | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 91 games (+26.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+15.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 86 games (+13.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 away games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 61% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 72 of their last 138 games (+9.70 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+8.97 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games (+6.75 Units / 94% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 77-81 against the Run Line (-15.3 Units / -7.34% ROI).
- 66-92 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.45 Units / -15.7% ROI
- 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -11.35% ROI
- 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.45 Units / 3.14% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-92 against the Run Line (-34.1 Units / -17.93% ROI).
- 84-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.2 Units / -8.86% ROI
- 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -4.69% ROI
- 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -3.02% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (266/601) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (218/712) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (219/543) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (198/226) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 45% (113 SO in 254 PAs) versus the bottom of the order since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (42-for-460) against Freddy Peralta with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .166 — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .155 (60-for-387) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .114 (9-for-79) against Freddy Peralta on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .271 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 49-14 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Marlins are just 52-9 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 8-53 (.131) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 8-53 (.131) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Brewers are 16-8 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 66-8 (.892) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Brewers are just 9-33 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (1,277 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .629 (2,973 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Marlins hitters have 824 strikeouts in 2,973 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 429 strikeouts in 1,668 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .375 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Calf, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Finger, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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