- The Brewers are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Miami Marlins (+120) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-145) on Monday, September 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 74-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 68-74 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -185 | O 7 -110 | +120 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | U 7 -110 | -145 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 70.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+9.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.50 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+15.50 Units / 100% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Sal Frelick has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.15 Units / 83% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+10.35 Units / 47% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -135 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+6.92 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+2.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.18 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.48 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-77 against the Run Line (-26.7 Units / -14.09% ROI).
- 74-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -0.88% ROI
- 65-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.65 Units / -8.83% ROI
- 72-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.26% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 68-74 against the Run Line (-10.4 Units / -5.78% ROI).
- 79-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 4.47% ROI
- 64-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.8 Units / -10.12% ROI
- 72-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 1.2% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 19% (62/332) against Jesus Luzardo this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed three-ball counts to 16% of batters they faced (186/1,170 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 185 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed three-ball counts to 22% of batters they faced (186/837 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 0 Percentile.
51% of Jesus Luzardo’s fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Woodruff has allowed an OBP of just .091 (22 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .294 — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has struck out 34% (131/383) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .050 (1-for-20) against Brandon Woodruff — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has pitched 12.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Bryan Abreu has the longest active streak at 20.0.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are 13-136 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are just 32-72 (.308) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Marlins are just 20-71 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are just 108-16 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 17-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Brewers are 16-9 (.640) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 18-36 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Brewers are 17-12 (.586) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 88 extra-base hits out of 324 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Marlins are batting .285 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 107 extra-base hits out of 422 total hits (just 25%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .359 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Corbin Burnes (Brewers): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Christian Yelich (Brewers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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