- The Brewers are -165 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jon Chargois
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 74-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 69-74 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -110 | +140 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -110 | -165 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 72.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 34 games (+16.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+10.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+9.90 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+16.65 Units / 101% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+14.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+13.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+11.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+7.92 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 away games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+6.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+3.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.58 Units / 66% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 75 games (+13.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 12 games at home (+9.85 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+9.18 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.48 Units / 35% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-78 against the Run Line (-28.4 Units / -14.85% ROI).
- 74-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -0.31% ROI
- 66-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.85 Units / -9.4% ROI
- 74-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 0.85% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 69-74 against the Run Line (-8.95 Units / -4.94% ROI).
- 80-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 4.3% ROI
- 66-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.8 Units / -8.71% ROI
- 72-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.22% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance Lynn walked 8 of 289 left-handed batters (3%) in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Lance Lynn walked 19 of 512 batters (4%) in 2022 — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 33% (155/465) against Lance Lynn in 2022 — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 93rd Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a swing rate of 53% (593/1,114) against Lance Lynn in 2022 — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 94th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (217/580) against Freddy Peralta this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 34% (416/1,225) against Freddy Peralta this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .197 (12-for-61) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .351 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 59% (279/470) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — sixth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are 48-8 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Marlins are just 20-71 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are just 108-16 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Marlins are 7-59 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 18-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Brewers are 20-9 (.690) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Brewers are 18-36 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Brewers are 58-10 (.853) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 90 extra-base hits out of 327 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 109 extra-base hits out of 429 total hits (just 25%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .237 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Brewers hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 55 of 517 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Brewers pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Corbin Burnes (Brewers): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Christian Yelich (Brewers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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