- The Marlins are +100 favorites vs the Brewers
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Brewers starting pitcher: Trevor Megill
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Miami Marlins (+100) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-120) on Wednesday, September 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 74-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 70-74 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 +100 | +100 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -120 | -120 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 54.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 35 games (+17.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+13.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+10.05 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+15.65 Units / 89% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+13.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+11.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 48% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| William Contreras | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
| Megill | 1.5 -125 | 1.5 -105 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.92 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.58 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 76 games (+14.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.18 Units / 31% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-79 against the Run Line (-29.9 Units / -15.51% ROI).
- 74-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -0.86% ROI
- 66-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.9 Units / -10% ROI
- 75-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 1.47% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 70-74 against the Run Line (-7.65 Units / -4.2% ROI).
- 81-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 4.81% ROI
- 66-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.85 Units / -9.31% ROI
- 73-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.41% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (530/1,100) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (321/661) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 3 of 124 batters (2%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 7 of 228 batters (3%) versus the top of the order this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 14% (1/7) against Trevor Megill — tied for 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Trevor Megill has a strikeout rate of 51% (22 SO in 43 PAs) over the last 30 days (10 games) — 2nd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Megill has struck out 54% (13/24) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (10 games) — tied for best among in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Megill has a strikeout rate of 53% (9 SO in 17 PAs) over the last 14 days (4 games) — 2nd best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 10-27 (.270) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Marlins are 13-137 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Marlins are just 32-73 (.305) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Marlins are 14-50 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 18-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Brewers are 20-9 (.690) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
The Brewers are 18-36 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Brewers are 32-19 (.627) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 90 extra-base hits out of 327 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 171 extra-base hits out of 576 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .237 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .356 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .688 (4,108 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Brewers hitters have 110 extra-base hits out of 433 total hits (just 25%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .230 against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Corbin Burnes (Brewers): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Christian Yelich (Brewers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Mark Canha (Brewers): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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