- The Marlins are -110 favorites vs the Brewers
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
- Brewers starting pitcher: Adrian Houser
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Miami Marlins (-110) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-110) on Thursday, September 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 75-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 70-75 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -115 | -110 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -105 | -110 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Marlins vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 36 games (+15.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.50 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+14.65 Units / 79% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+12.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+12.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 38% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Luis Arraez | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -185 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Burger | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Houser | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Eury Perez | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+9.92 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 61 away games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.63 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 77 games (+12.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.83 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.73 Units / 24% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 67-79 against the Run Line (-28.9 Units / -14.84% ROI).
- 75-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -0.27% ROI
- 66-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -17 Units / -10.62% ROI
- 76-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 2.08% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 70-75 against the Run Line (-8.65 Units / -4.73% ROI).
- 81-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.55 Units / 4.1% ROI
- 66-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.95 Units / -9.93% ROI
- 74-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 1.04% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eury Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .825 (33 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .432 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 49% (176/360) against Eury Perez on non-fastballs this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order are hitting just .182 (38-for-209) against Eury Perez this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 98th Percentile.
Eury Perez has an average spin rate of 2632.7 RPM on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 2239.0 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 71% of the time (1,089/1,538) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (7/67) against Adrian Houser with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (91/558) against Adrian Houser since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 75% of the time (233/309) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 32-73 (.305) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Marlins are just 20-71 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are just 108-16 (.871) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Marlins are just 98-24 (.803) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are 18-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Brewers are 18-36 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Brewers are 58-10 (.853) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Brewers are 17-12 (.586) after a loss as underdogs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters have 91 extra-base hits out of 328 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 172 walks in 2,588 PA’s (7%) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters have 111 extra-base hits out of 437 total hits (just 25%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .237 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Brewers hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 1.10 (57.1 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Corbin Burnes (Brewers): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Christian Yelich (Brewers): Back, Day-to-Day
- Blake Perkins (Brewers): Oblique, D10
- Jean Carlos Mejía (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Mark Canha (Brewers): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Julio Teheran (Brewers): Hip, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
Bet now on Marlins vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
