- The Brewers (83-72) are -165 favorites vs the Marlins (64-91)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (3-6), 3.51 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (10-7), 3.96 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 64-91 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-88 ATS.
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -110 | +140 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -110 | -165 |
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 45 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Freddy Peralta has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Mike Brosseau | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Mike Brosseau | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Mike Brosseau | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 away games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.70 Units / 71% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 74-81 against the Run Line (-18.3 Units / -8.96% ROI).
- 64-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.55 Units / -17.1% ROI
- 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.5 Units / -9.62% ROI
- 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 1.44% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-88 against the Run Line (-29.5 Units / -15.89% ROI).
- 83-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.75 Units / -8.05% ROI
- 75-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -2.83% ROI
- 73-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -4.84% ROI
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett had a strike rate of 78% (62/80) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of 51% (19/37) against Braxton Garrett — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 36% (233/654) against Braxton Garrett this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 46% (112/242) against Braxton Garrett on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .274 (32-for-117) against Eric Lauer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (103/299) against Eric Lauer in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.
Eric Lauer has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (611/1,374) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (268/751) against Eric Lauer since the start of last season — tied for 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 44% — ninth Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Marlins are just 49-14 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Marlins are just 63-74 (.460) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Brewers are just 9-33 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Brewers are 8-56 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Brewers are 16-8 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 8-53 (.131) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .272 (1,244 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have 809 strikeouts in 2,940 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,940 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .222 (6,452 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .219 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of .749 (4,231 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.01 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Marlins have won just 28% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Calf, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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