Marlins vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 29, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers (83-72) are -165 favorites vs the Marlins (64-91)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (3-6), 3.51 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (10-7), 3.96 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Miami Marlins (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Thursday, September 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Marlins vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 64-91 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 66-88 ATS.

Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -150O 7.5 -110+140
Brewers -1.5 +125U 7.5 -110-165

Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 45 games at home (+11.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Freddy Peralta has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)

Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Christian Yelich 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Luis Urias 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Mike Brosseau 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000

Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Christian Yelich 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Luis Urias 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Mike Brosseau 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Christian Yelich 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Luis Urias 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Mike Brosseau 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Lauer 5.5 -135 5.5 -105
Braxton Garrett 5.5 -145 5.5 +105
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 away games (+8.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.70 Units / 71% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 74-81 against the Run Line (-18.3 Units / -8.96% ROI).

  • 64-91 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.55 Units / -17.1% ROI
  • 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.5 Units / -9.62% ROI
  • 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 1.44% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 66-88 against the Run Line (-29.5 Units / -15.89% ROI).

  • 83-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.75 Units / -8.05% ROI
  • 75-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -2.83% ROI
  • 73-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -4.84% ROI

Braxton Garrett had a strike rate of 78% (62/80) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents had a chase percentage of 51% (19/37) against Braxton Garrett — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 36% (233/654) against Braxton Garrett this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 46% (112/242) against Braxton Garrett on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.

Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .274 (32-for-117) against Eric Lauer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (103/299) against Eric Lauer in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.

Eric Lauer has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (611/1,374) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% (268/751) against Eric Lauer since the start of last season — tied for 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 44% — ninth Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Marlins are just 49-14 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Marlins are just 63-74 (.460) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Brewers are just 9-33 (.214) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Brewers are 8-56 (.125) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Brewers are 16-8 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 8-53 (.131) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .272 (1,244 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Marlins hitters have 809 strikeouts in 2,940 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,940 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .222 (6,452 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

The Brewers are batting just .219 against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of .749 (4,231 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.01 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Marlins have won just 28% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Calf, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.