- The Cardinals are -155 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Miami Marlins (+130) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-155) on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 53-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 46-48 ATS.
Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -105 | +130 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -115 | -155 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+15.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 34 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.40 Units / 58% ROI)
Cardinals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -185 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Cardinals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Montgomery | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Edward Cabrera | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 63 games (+14.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 85 games (+12.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+10.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 76 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-49 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -8.51% ROI).
- 53-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.35 Units / 7.9% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.5 Units / -6.17% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -2.55% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 46-48 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -4.41% ROI).
- 41-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.45 Units / -21.56% ROI
- 47-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -1.16% ROI
- 44-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -7.47% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 77% (43/56) against Edward Cabrera’s changeup this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .057 (2 GB hits out of 35 GBs) against Edward Cabrera with runners on base this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 41 of 291 batters (14%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (63/337) against Edward Cabrera since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
39% of Jordan Montgomery’s fastball strikeouts are located down this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has a strikeout rate of 43% (52 SO in 122 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 85th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (23/72) against Jordan Montgomery with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (52/144) against Jordan Montgomery on elevated fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Marlins are just 12-58 (.171) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are just 84-21 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Marlins are 9-31 (.225) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
The Marlins are just 34-24 (.586) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cardinals are just 32-5 (.865) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Cardinals are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Cardinals are 26-8 (.765) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 29-6 (.829) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 53 extra-base hits out of 210 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Marlins are batting .313 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 40% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .337 (2,190 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cardinals hitters have 325 extra-base hits out of 788 total hits (41%) against LHP since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .263 (5,132 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 56 of 832 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Jordan Montgomery (Cardinals): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Edman (Cardinals): Wrist, D10
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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