- The Marlins are -115 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Dakota Hudson
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Miami Marlins (-115) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-105) on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Marlins vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 53-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 47-48 ATS.
Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -105 | -115 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -115 | -105 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+13.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 34 games (+11.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 27 games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Lars Nootbaar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
Cardinals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
Cardinals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Dylan Carlson | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Paul DeJong | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 64 games (+15.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 86 games (+11.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+11.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+7.75 Units / 13% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+9.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.20 Units / 39% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-50 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -9.5% ROI).
- 53-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.35 Units / 7% ROI
- 45-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.55 Units / -7.1% ROI
- 48-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -1.59% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 47-48 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -3.4% ROI).
- 42-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.45 Units / -20.47% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -2.16% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -6.43% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (1,620/2,247) against right-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (593/827) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .360 (32-for-89) against Sandy Alcantara with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 38 times since last season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 41% (467/1,143) against Dakota Hudson since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (123/209) against Dakota Hudson since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 60% (1,440/2,405) since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 57% (656/1,143) vs left-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Marlins are just 84-21 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Marlins are just 12-59 (.169) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are 32-4 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Marlins are 11-115 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cardinals are just 32-5 (.865) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Cardinals are just 29-6 (.829) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Cardinals are just 1-43 (.023) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Cardinals are 27-8 (.771) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 54 extra-base hits out of 216 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of .360 (768 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins are batting .310 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have 327 extra-base hits out of 791 total hits (41%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .337 (2,203 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .262 (5,152 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Cardinals pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Jacob Woodford (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Drew VerHagen (Cardinals): Hip, D15
- Adam Wainwright (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Edman (Cardinals): Wrist, D10
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D15
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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