- The Marlins are +100 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Marlins vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Cardinals TV Channel: FDFL | FDMW
The Miami Marlins (+100) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-120) on Monday, July 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT in St. Louis, MO, MO.
This season, the Marlins are 50-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 56-51 ATS.
Marlins vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 4-4, 3.49 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Andre Pallante 5-7, 4.93 ERA
Marlins vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 away games (+12.00 Units / 240% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ivan Herrera has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ivan Herrera has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Masyn Winn has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games (+19.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+17.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 45 away games (+16.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 away games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+9.57 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+8.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+7.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 62-42 against the Run Line (+11.05 Units / 7.96% ROI).
- 50-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.1 Units / 9.18% ROI
- 48-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.35 Units / -11.58% ROI
- 55-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 1.98% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 56-51 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.11% ROI).
- 54-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -2.35% ROI
- 55-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 3.6% ROI
- 46-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.35 Units / -12.23% ROI
Cardinals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ivan Herrera (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Cardinals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
| Brendan Donovan (STL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Cardinals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andre Pallante (STL) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has not walked any of the 36 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (75/175) against Edward Cabrera with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 59% of Edward Cabrera’s pitches in the zone (419/711) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has thrown off-speed pitches 83% of the time (75/90) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 54% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (227/365) against Andre Pallante this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Andre Pallante has a strikeout rate of just 12% (22 SO in 180 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (74/120) against Andre Pallante in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (238/343) against Andre Pallante since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 74-19 (.796) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .865.
The Marlins are 7-41 (.146) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Marlins are 9-41 (.180) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .120.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cardinals are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Cardinals are just 13-44 (.228) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cardinals are 109-6 (.948) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Cardinals are 121-3 (.976) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .639 (3,084 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .342 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .385.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.74 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .349 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 13% of their PA’s against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 15% of their PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Cardinals are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Cardinals hitters have struck out in just 16% of their PA’s over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 5% of batters this month (22 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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