- The Cubs (43-63) are -140 favorites vs the Marlins (48-59)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (2-4), 3.97 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-2), 3.73 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-140) on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Cubs Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 48-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 54-52 ATS.
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | O 9.5 -105 | +115 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | U 9.5 -115 | -140 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s matchup with 74.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 52 games (+17.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+15.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 57 games (+14.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+12.55 Units / 53% ROI)
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frank Schwindel | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 away games (+4.35 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+12.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.25 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-60 against the Run Line (-22 Units / -15.45% ROI).
- 48-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.4 Units / -12.59% ROI
- 50-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -6.9% ROI
- 53-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -1.28% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 54-52 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -4.86% ROI).
- 43-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -13.38% ROI
- 45-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -13.17% ROI
- 55-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.8 Units / 4.97% ROI
Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 43 of Jesus Luzardo’s 298 fastballs in off the plate (14%) since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .279 (24-for-86) against Jesus Luzardo on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 89th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .571 (213 Total Bases / 373 ABs) on fastballs since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .437 — second Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .592 (298 Total Bases / 503 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .479 — first Percentile.
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to July 17th — Max Fried has the longest active streak at 10.
Adrian Sampson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 18.1 innings he’s appeared — Max Fried has the longest active streak at 66.0.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 8-25 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Marlins are just 18-55 (.247) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Marlins are just 23-28 (.451) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 5-29 (.147) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Cubs are just 22-32 (.407) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Cubs are just 2-48 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Cubs are just 7-41 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 697 strikeouts in 2,527 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (831 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .636 (2,527 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,527 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .361 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Cubs hitters have 1,866 strikeouts in 7,310 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 47 double plays in 318 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 951 of 10,267 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Morel (Cubs): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
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