Marlins vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 7

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cubs (43-63) are -140 favorites vs the Marlins (48-59)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (2-4), 3.97 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-2), 3.73 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-140) on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Marlins vs Cubs Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 48-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 54-52 ATS.

Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -160O 9.5 -105+115
Cubs -1.5 +135U 9.5 -115-140

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s matchup with 74.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+11.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.65 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 52 games (+17.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+15.15 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 57 games (+14.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games (+12.55 Units / 53% ROI)

Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Frank Schwindel 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Ian Happ 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Nick Madrigal 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Frank Schwindel 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Ian Happ 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
Nick Madrigal 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Nico Hoerner 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Frank Schwindel 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Ian Happ 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Nick Madrigal 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +160 0.5 -250

Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Sampson 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
Jesus Luzardo 5.5 -120 5.5 -115
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 away games (+4.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+12.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.25 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+0.20 Units / 1% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 47-60 against the Run Line (-22 Units / -15.45% ROI).

  • 48-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.4 Units / -12.59% ROI
  • 50-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -6.9% ROI
  • 53-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -1.28% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 54-52 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -4.86% ROI).

  • 43-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -13.38% ROI
  • 45-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -13.17% ROI
  • 55-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.8 Units / 4.97% ROI

Hitters have chased just 43 of Jesus Luzardo’s 298 fastballs in off the plate (14%) since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .279 (24-for-86) against Jesus Luzardo on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of 2020 — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 89th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .571 (213 Total Bases / 373 ABs) on fastballs since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .437 — second Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .592 (298 Total Bases / 503 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .479 — first Percentile.

Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adrian Sampson has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to July 17th — Max Fried has the longest active streak at 10.

Adrian Sampson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 18.1 innings he’s appeared — Max Fried has the longest active streak at 66.0.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Marlins are just 8-25 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Marlins are just 18-55 (.247) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Marlins are just 23-28 (.451) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Marlins are 14-2 (.875) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Cubs are just 5-29 (.147) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Cubs are just 22-32 (.407) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Cubs are just 2-48 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Cubs are just 7-41 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

Marlins hitters have 697 strikeouts in 2,527 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (831 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .636 (2,527 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,527 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .361 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.

Cubs hitters have 1,866 strikeouts in 7,310 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 47 double plays in 318 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 951 of 10,267 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Cubs pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Morel (Cubs): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.