- The Cubs are -185 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Bryan Hoeing
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (+150) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-185) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Marlins vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 16-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 18-14 ATS.
Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -125 | O 9 -105 | +150 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -115 | -185 |
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+10.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.35 Units / 63% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.45 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+19.95 Units / 90% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+16.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+15.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 28 games (+10.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Cubs vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Cubs vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Cubs vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
| Drew Smyly | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.20 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+3.20 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+7.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+7.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 12-21 against the Run Line (-15.3 Units / -33.41% ROI).
- 16-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 1.24% ROI
- 14-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -15.86% ROI
- 18-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.55 Units / 7.01% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 18-14 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 11.73% ROI).
- 16-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -1.77% ROI
- 13-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -19.8% ROI
- 18-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.6 Units / 10.24% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Hoeing has limited playing time.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 58% of the time (127/218) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (610/1,567) in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .161 (15-for-93) against Drew Smyly this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 93rd Percentile.
Drew Smyly has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (14 Total Bases / 21 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — third Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 10-49 (.169) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Marlins are just 30-59 (.337) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Marlins are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Marlins are just 12-14 (.462) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 0-11 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .108.
The Cubs are 9-2 (.818) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Cubs are just 1-9 (.100) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Cubs are just 13-18 (.419) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.56 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .625 (1,587 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .223 (7,230 PA’s) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .662 (921 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .227 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Cubs are batting .212 with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Cubs are batting .273 with two outs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .627 (688 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Marlins pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 9 of 231 batters (4%) over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 34% against the Cubs pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Cubs vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Yan Gomes (Cubs): Concussion, D7
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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