• The Cubs are -175 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Cubs Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
• Marlins / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | MATV

The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-175) on September 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 pm in Chicago, IL.

This season, the Marlins are 77-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 75-80 ATS.

Marlins vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 1-5, 4.16 ERA
• Cubs starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman 9-12, 4.53 ERA

Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 60.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jakob Marsee has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+23.00 Units / 288% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+14.05 Units / 50% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+12.50 Units / 50% ROI)
• Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.80 Units / 108% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Michael Conforto has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 games at home (+19.90 Units / 44% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+11.45 Units / 41% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 50% ROI)
• Pedro Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 100% ROI)
• Michael Conforto has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.20 Units / 32% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.50 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+4.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.05 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+2.95 Units / 33% ROI)

Cubs Best Bets Today:

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+14.85 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+10.15 Units / 62% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 50 games (+4.05 Units / 7% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 80-75 against the Run Line (-6.15 Units / -2.95% ROI).

• 77-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -0.72% ROI
• 81-72 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 0.89% ROI
• 72-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.65 Units / -9.68% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 75-80 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -0.6% ROI).

• 87-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -1.54% ROI
• 88-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +17.25 Units / 9.97% ROI
• 65-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -31.1 Units / -18.02% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Marlins are just 15-34 (.306) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Cubs (12th fewest runs allowed).

The Marlins were just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins are just 31-109 (.221) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Cubs are 48-6 (.889) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Cubs are 30-35 (.462) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB.

The Cubs are 32-11 (.744) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Cubs are 18-28 (.391) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .283 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .307 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .744 (1,886 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .334 (2,894 PA’s) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends

Cubs hitters are slugging .508 on breaking pitches against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Cubs hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s this season — tied for best in MLB.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of .798 (1,639 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of .770 (6,198 PA’s) this season — best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 119 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 65% of opposing batters this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 132 stolen bases this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.

Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Cubs pitchers have picked-off 23 runners from first base this season — most in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Cubs pitchers this season — best in MLB.

Cubs pitchers have picked-off 23 runners this season — most in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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