- The Diamondbacks are -150 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Diamondbacks TV Channel: FDFL | DBTV
The Miami Marlins (+125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-150) on Saturday, June 28, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.
This season, the Marlins are 35-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 39-42 ATS.
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 4-8, 6.73 ERA
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 8-5, 5.54 ERA
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -120 | +125 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +145 | U 9 +100 | -150 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+14.40 Units / 288% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+11.25 Units / 125% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+10.70 Units / 97% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+8.35 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+16.00 Units / 267% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 21 away games (+12.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 33 away games (+11.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+11.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 away games (+10.30 Units / 41% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 65 games (+14.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 65 games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+7.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 45-35 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 4.24% ROI).
- 35-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 1.12% ROI
- 40-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -5.44% ROI
- 40-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -4.32% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 39-42 against the Run Line (-7.71 Units / -7.46% ROI).
- 41-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -8.28% ROI
- 41-36 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 1.34% ROI
- 36-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.7 Units / -9.84% ROI
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jake McCarthy (ARI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has allowed 22 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 20 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed an OBP of .452 (104 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .313 — third Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed three-ball counts to 33% of left-handed batters he faced (53/163 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 21% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .430 (71 Total Bases / 165 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .454 (69 Total Bases / 152 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .274 — first Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OPS of .731 (186 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .478 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (79/261) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Marlins are just 64-18 (.780) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .862.
The Marlins are just 33-62 (.347) after a win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Marlins are just 12-38 (.240) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Diamondbacks are 3-35 (.079) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Diamondbacks are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 32-8 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are 99-25 (.792) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have struck out in just 21% of their PA’s against LHP this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
The Marlins are batting .289 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 17% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .799 (4,562 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Diamondbacks batted .284 against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (337.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.21.
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 518.2 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
The Marlins have allowed 5.69 runs per game (222/39) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.40.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a in-zone of just 48% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have 95 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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