- The Diamondbacks are -190 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Miami Marlins (+155) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-190) on Monday, May 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 17-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 19-15 ATS.
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -110 | +155 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -110 | -190 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+7.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.35 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+14.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+13.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Braxton Garrett | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+3.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+3.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.40 Units / 26% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 games (+8.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 31 games (+4.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 12-23 against the Run Line (-17.55 Units / -36.52% ROI).
- 17-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.45 Units / 1.17% ROI
- 15-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -15.19% ROI
- 19-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 6.49% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 19-15 against the Run Line (+3.3 Units / 7.56% ROI).
- 19-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.5 Units / 16.19% ROI
- 18-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 6.91% ROI
- 14-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -15.15% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tony Gonsolin allowed a BABIP of .207 in 2022 — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Tony Gonsolin allowed an OPS of just .369 (310 PA’s) on non-fastballs in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .638 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .107 (28-for-262) against Tony Gonsolin with two-strikes in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 99th Percentile.
Tony Gonsolin allowed a BABIP of .212 against right-handed batters in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – home
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
keys to the game – away
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Diamondbacks are just 104-34 (.754) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .869.
The Diamondbacks are just 19-10 (.655) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Diamondbacks are just 38-21 (.644) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Diamondbacks are just 32-165 (.162) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (3,299 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,603 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .627 (1,603 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins hitters have 426 strikeouts in 1,603 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have just 160 strikeouts in 854 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .208 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 3% of PA’s since last season (197/7,226) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 74% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 124 of 1,274 batters (10%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Ear Infection, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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