• The Diamondbacks are -140 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Diamondbacks Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Marlins / Diamondbacks TV Channel: DBTV | MATV

The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-140) on September 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Marlins are 75-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 78-69 ATS.

Marlins vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 1-5, 4.16 ERA
• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 9-13, 4.99 ERA

Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Marlins vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Javier Sanoja has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+22.00 Units / 220% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+18.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.55 Units / 52% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.15 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jordan Lawlar has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+30.00 Units / 300% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 53% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 50% ROI)
• Merrill Kelly has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 35 games (+3.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.95 Units / 39% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 23 games (+14.65 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games (+3.45 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+3.05 Units / 10% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 77-73 against the Run Line (-6.2 Units / -3.08% ROI).

• 75-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.3 Units / -0.74% ROI
• 77-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -0.86% ROI
• 71-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -7.99% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 78-69 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -0.94% ROI).

• 80-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 4.01% ROI
• 64-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.35 Units / -15.69% ROI
• 82-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.15 Units / 7.29% ROI

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Marlins are just 32-45 (.416) after a loss this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

The Marlins were just 39-14 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.

The Marlins were just 60-86 (.411) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.

The Marlins were just 62-100 (.383) in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Diamondbacks are 67-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are 12-54 (.182) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks were just 67-13 (.838) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Diamondbacks were just 67-7 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .283 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .308 with runners on base this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .747 (1,825 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends

The Diamondbacks are batting .274 against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 25% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .439 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have picked-off 2 runners from first base this season — fewest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed 126 stolen bases this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 113 times this season — 5th most in MLB.

Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

Bet now on Marlins vs Diamondbacks and all games with BetMGM

Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.