- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Sunday, April 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Marlins vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 12-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 7-14 ATS.
Marlins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +105 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -125 |
Marlins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Marlins vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+7.60 Units / 127% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+7.50 Units / 94% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 55% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.10 Units / 68% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Guardians vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Guardians vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Guardians vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 6.5 +135 | 6.5 -185 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in their last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 9-12 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -20.71% ROI).
- 12-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.7 Units / 15.58% ROI
- 6-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -40.61% ROI
- 14-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.25 Units / 31.05% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 7-14 against the Run Line (-7.25 Units / -28.94% ROI).
- 10-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.5 Units / -15.99% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -13.98% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 5.01% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OBP of .609 (23 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .313 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (64/192) against Jesus Luzardo this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .500 (9-for-18) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 33% (130/396) against Jesus Luzardo with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Marlins are just 9-62 (.127) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Marlins are just 9-15 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are 12-0 (1.000) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Marlins are 44-5 (.898) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Guardians are 20-63 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 4-6 (.400) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 2-6 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Guardians are 14-66 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .333 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .613 (1,457 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,457 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have put 45% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 897 strikeouts in 5,129 PA’s (17%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,278 strikeouts in 6,979 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 10% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 20 of 189 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 60 of 810 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
Bet now on Marlins vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
