- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: MATV | SNY
The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on August 1, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm in Flushing, Queens, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 55-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 50-58 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Tyler Phillips 2-5, 3.54 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Zach Thornton 2-1, 2.46 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -115 | +110 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -105 | -135 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+18.00 Units / 180% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 away games (+5.05 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Zach Thornton has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Zach Thornton has hit the Strikeouts Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Zach Thornton has hit the Earned Runs Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Zach Thornton has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- Zach Thornton has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Mets Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 55-54 against the Run Line (-7.35 Units / -5.01% ROI).
- 55-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.74% ROI
- 56-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.37% ROI
- 51-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -8.55% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 50-58 against the Run Line (-6.85 Units / -5.12% ROI).
- 47-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.85 Units / -22.31% ROI
- 48-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.2 Units / -9.18% ROI
- 53-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -0.04% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Yes | |
|---|---|
| Heriberto Hernandez | +300 |
| Kyle Stowers | +360 |
| Francisco Lindor | +380 |
| Francisco Alvarez | +425 |
| Jorge Polanco | +475 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Ewing | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +170 |
| Javier Sanoja | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xavier Edwards | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| A.J. Ewing | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Joe Mack | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Alvarez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB.
The Marlins are just 23-32 (.418) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB.
The Marlins are just 23-32 (.418) after a loss since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB.
The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are just 5-48 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB.
The Mets are 32-5 (.865) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB.
The Mets are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.
The Mets are just 47-64 (.423) this season — 5th lowest in MLB.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 this season — best in MLB.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of .735 (2,086 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB.
Marlins hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.
The Marlins are batting just .177 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .628 (1,058 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — lowest in MLB.
Mets hitters have 28 extra-base hits out of 114 total hits (just 25%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .686 (4,162 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Mets hitters are slugging just .240 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Marlins pitchers have not picked-off any runners from first base this season — fewest in MLB.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB.
Marlins pitchers have 177 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 5th most in MLB.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.
The Mets have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Mets pitchers have won only 21% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 4th lowest in MLB.
The Mets have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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