• The Marlins are -125 favorites vs the Mets
• Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Marlins / Mets TV Channel: MATV | SNY | WBFS

The Miami Marlins (-125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+105) on August 2, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Marlins are 57-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 50-60 ATS.

Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 11-6, 3.86 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Robert Stock 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.35 Units / 46% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+14.80 Units / 148% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.10 Units / 44% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.70 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Tyrone Taylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+41.40 Units / 460% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.10 Units / 40% ROI)
• Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+10.20 Units / 113% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 32% ROI)
• A.J. Ewing has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 22% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+10.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+10.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 40 games (+16.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.80 Units / 54% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+6.00 Units / 43% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.75 Units / 9% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 57-54 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -3.57% ROI).

• 57-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 2.38% ROI
• 56-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -2.06% ROI
• 53-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -6.76% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 50-60 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -6.52% ROI).

• 47-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -33.4 Units / -23.72% ROI
• 48-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -10.72% ROI
• 55-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 1.59% ROI

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are 30-4 (.882) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Marlins are 33-23 (.589) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Marlins are 33-23 (.589) after a win since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB.

The Marlins are 30-4 (.882) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are just 42-56 (.429) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets are 32-5 (.865) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Mets are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Mets are just 47-65 (.420) this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

The Marlins are batting just .183 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .738 (2,129 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .261 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .679 (3,037 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have 28 extra-base hits out of 116 total hits (just 24%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .381 this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .302 (3,037 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have not picked-off any runners from first base this season — fewest in MLB.

The Marlins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 178 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 5th most in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have had second base stolen on them 91 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Mets have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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