Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 10, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (40-43) are -105 favorites vs the Mets (53-32)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-3), 1.82 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (7-2), 2.86 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Miami Marlins (-105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-115) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 40-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 46-39 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins-1.5 +165O 7 -120-105
Mets +1.5 -200U 7 +100-115

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 61.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.45 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+8.90 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.75 Units / 39% ROI)

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Dominic Smith 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Dominic Smith 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Dominic Smith 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Taijuan Walker 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
Sandy Alcantara 5.5 +100 5.5 -145
Taijuan Walker 3.5 -165 3.5 +120
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 63 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 46 away games (+6.00 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.40 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 36 games at home (+18.97 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 85 games (+13.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+12.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 42-41 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -3.11% ROI).

  • 40-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -4.94% ROI
  • 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.55 Units / -0.6% ROI
  • 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -7.46% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 46-39 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 7.06% ROI).

  • 53-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 10.95% ROI
  • 45-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 6.33% ROI
  • 35-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -15.04% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (15/132) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (185/327) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (63/398) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (78/132) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .436 against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — eighth worst among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP– seventh Percentile. Opponents batted just .269 (18-for-67) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP– 90th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (16/26) against Taijuan Walker — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .347 (17-for-49) against Taijuan Walker’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .226 — eighth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (20/34) against Taijuan Walker — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.

The Marlins are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

The Marlins are just 1-34 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 45-10 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 25-6 (.806) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Mets are 3-26 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .083.

Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,342 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,342 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Marlins are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Marlins hitters have 179 strikeouts in 646 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets have scored first in 76% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have 189 extra-base hits out of 609 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Mets hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have walked 140 of 2,142 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
  • James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.