- The Marlins (40-43) are -105 favorites vs the Mets (53-32)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-3), 1.82 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker (7-2), 2.86 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (-105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-115) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 40-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 46-39 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +165 | O 7 -120 | -105 |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | U 7 +100 | -115 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 61.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+8.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.75 Units / 39% ROI)
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taijuan Walker | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -145 |
| Taijuan Walker | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 63 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 46 away games (+6.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.40 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.20 Units / 35% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 36 games at home (+18.97 Units / 46% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 85 games (+13.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+12.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 42-41 against the Run Line (-3.45 Units / -3.11% ROI).
- 40-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -4.94% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.55 Units / -0.6% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -7.46% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 46-39 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 7.06% ROI).
- 53-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.15 Units / 10.95% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 6.33% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -15.04% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (15/132) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (185/327) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (63/398) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (78/132) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Taijuan Walker: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .436 against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats this season — eighth worst among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP– seventh Percentile. Opponents batted just .269 (18-for-67) against Taijuan Walker on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP– 90th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 61% (16/26) against Taijuan Walker — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .347 (17-for-49) against Taijuan Walker’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .226 — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (20/34) against Taijuan Walker — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Marlins are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Marlins are just 1-34 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .083.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 45-10 (.818) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are just 4-5 (.444) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 25-6 (.806) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
The Mets are 3-26 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .083.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,342 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,342 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Marlins are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Marlins hitters have 179 strikeouts in 646 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 76% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have 189 extra-base hits out of 609 total hits (just 31%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Mets hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have walked 140 of 2,142 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
- James McCann (Mets): Oblique, D10
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.