• The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 7 Runs
• Marlins / Mets TV Channel: MATV | SNY

The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on July 30, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Flushing, Queens, NY.

This season, the Marlins are against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are ATS.

Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez 5-8, 3.58 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Nolan McLean 7-7, 3.31 ERA

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Marlins vs Mets and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+16.80 Units / 210% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.40 Units / 39% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.55 Units / 52% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.50 Units / 210% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 34% ROI)
• A.J. Ewing has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.40 Units / 31% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 away games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.20 Units / 17% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+14.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+7.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.15 Units / 51% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.30 Units / 25% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are 32-22 (.593) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.

The Marlins are just 22-32 (.407) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .754.

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .754.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are just 41-54 (.432) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Mets are just 14-58 (.194) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

The Mets are just 46-63 (.422) this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are just 7-27 (.206) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

The Marlins have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

The Marlins have an xwOBA of just .326 this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Games involving the Marlins went UNDER in 57% of their games (10.3% ROI) after a win this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mets have a winning percentage of just 44% at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

The Mets have a winning percentage of just 42% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

The Mets have hit 695 balls in play with an exit velocity over 100 MPH this season — 5th most in MLB.

The Mets have scored first in just 34% of their home games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 51% of their games since the 2025 season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

The Marlins pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH since the 2025 season (6,865 balls in play) — 3rd highest in MLB

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have won only 21% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Mets have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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