• The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Marlins / Mets TV Channel: MATV | WPIX | WFOR

The Miami Marlins (+110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on July 31, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Marlins are against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are ATS.

Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 4-6, 4.87 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 5-9, 5.02 ERA

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Marlins vs Mets and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Liam Hicks has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.90 Units / 62% ROI)
• Joe Mack has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+15.80 Units / 176% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+15.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+13.75 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.75 Units / 30% ROI)
• Francisco Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 48% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.50 Units / 158% ROI)
• Freddy Peralta has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 41% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games (+8.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.85 Units / 14% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+16.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 49% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.00 Units / 36% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.30 Units / 60% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .754.

The Marlins are just 21-32 (.396) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Marlins are 29-4 (.879) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .754.

The Marlins are just 21-32 (.396) on the road since the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .478.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are just 25-38 (.397) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.

The Mets are just 42-54 (.438) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Mets are just 5-47 (.096) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.

The Mets are just 15-58 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have a groundball batting average of .283 this season — best in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .177 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .531 (372 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .683 (2,973 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have 28 extra-base hits out of 112 total hits (just 25%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .658 (1,292 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters are slugging just .380 against RHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

The Marlins have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.45 (516.2 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have not picked-off any runners from first base this season — fewest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 63% this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have 176 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 5th most in MLB.

The Mets have won just 9% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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