Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 7

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (51-31) are -175 favorites vs the Marlins (39-41)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Daniel Castano (1-1), 2.42 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Trevor Williams (1-5), 4.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-175) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 39-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 45-37 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -135O 8 +100+145
Mets -1.5 +110U 8 -120-175

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 65.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+11.90 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.35 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+7.25 Units / 24% ROI)

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
J.D. Davis 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
James McCann 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
J.D. Davis 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
James McCann 0.5 -185 0.5 +130

Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
J.D. Davis 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
James McCann 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trevor Williams 3.5 -125 3.5 -115
Daniel Castano 3.5 +130 3.5 -190
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 away games (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 43 away games (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 33 games at home (+17.97 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 82 games (+12.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+12.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+8.95 Units / 18% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 40-40 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -3.8% ROI).

  • 39-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -4.58% ROI
  • 39-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -2.87% ROI
  • 38-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -5.07% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 45-37 against the Run Line (+8 Units / 8.08% ROI).

  • 51-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.8 Units / 11.12% ROI
  • 43-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 4.37% ROI
  • 35-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.55 Units / -12.96% ROI

Daniel Castano has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to June 21st — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 9.

Daniel Castano has allowed an OBP of .444 (18 PA’s) versus the top of the order — tied for 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .311 — 12th Percentile.

Daniel Castano’s K:BB ratio is 1.8 (7/4) — tied for 9th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.4 — 11th Percentile.

Daniel Castano has allowed an OBP of just .133 (15 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order — tied for 9th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .287 — 90th Percentile.

Trevor Williams: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of 43% (19 SO in 44 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .552 (101 Total Bases / 183 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .316 (36-for-114) against Trevor Williams’ low curves and sliders since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .186 — first Percentile.

Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 51% (369/727) on sliders since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 4-27 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.

The Marlins are just 6-18 (.250) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.

The Marlins are just 60-94 (.390) on the road since the 2020 season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 44-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .918.

The Mets are 43-10 (.811) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.

The Mets are 26-13 (.667) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .516.

Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,337 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .620 (641 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Marlins hitters have 179 strikeouts in 641 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .285 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Mets hitters have 181 extra-base hits out of 594 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Mets hitters have just 417 strikeouts in 2,136 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets have scored first in 77% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.35 (1075.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.