- The Mets (51-31) are -175 favorites vs the Marlins (39-41)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Daniel Castano (1-1), 2.42 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Trevor Williams (1-5), 4.33 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-175) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 39-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 45-37 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | O 8 +100 | +145 |
| Mets | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -120 | -175 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+11.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+7.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -115 |
| Daniel Castano | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -190 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 42 away games (+5.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 43 away games (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 57% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 33 games at home (+17.97 Units / 47% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 82 games (+12.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+12.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games (+8.95 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 40-40 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -3.8% ROI).
- 39-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -4.58% ROI
- 39-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -2.87% ROI
- 38-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -5.07% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 45-37 against the Run Line (+8 Units / 8.08% ROI).
- 51-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.8 Units / 11.12% ROI
- 43-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 4.37% ROI
- 35-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.55 Units / -12.96% ROI
Daniel Castano: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Daniel Castano has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to June 21st — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 9.
Daniel Castano has allowed an OBP of .444 (18 PA’s) versus the top of the order — tied for 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .311 — 12th Percentile.
Daniel Castano’s K:BB ratio is 1.8 (7/4) — tied for 9th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.4 — 11th Percentile.
Daniel Castano has allowed an OBP of just .133 (15 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order — tied for 9th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .287 — 90th Percentile.
Trevor Williams: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of 43% (19 SO in 44 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .552 (101 Total Bases / 183 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .300 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .316 (36-for-114) against Trevor Williams’ low curves and sliders since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .186 — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 51% (369/727) on sliders since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 4-27 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Marlins are just 6-18 (.250) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Marlins are just 60-94 (.390) on the road since the 2020 season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .465.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 44-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .918.
The Mets are 43-10 (.811) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Mets are 26-13 (.667) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,337 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .620 (641 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Marlins hitters have 179 strikeouts in 641 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .285 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Mets hitters have 181 extra-base hits out of 594 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets hitters have just 417 strikeouts in 2,136 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have scored first in 77% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.35 (1075.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Bassitt (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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