Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 8

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 08, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (52-31) are -165 favorites vs the Marlins (39-42)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (5-4), 2.96 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (6-5), 4.01 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-165) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 39-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 46-37 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -145O 7 +105+140
Mets -1.5 +120U 7 -125-165

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+8.45 Units / 60% ROI)

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
James McCann 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
James McCann 0.5 -140 0.5 -105
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
James McCann 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Bassitt 5.5 -140 5.5 +100
Pablo Lopez 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games (+7.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+5.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.15 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 34 games at home (+18.97 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 games (+13.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 34 games at home (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 40-41 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -5.05% ROI).

  • 39-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -5.56% ROI
  • 40-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.73% ROI
  • 38-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -6.35% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 46-37 against the Run Line (+9.2 Units / 9.2% ROI).

  • 52-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 11.82% ROI
  • 44-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 5.4% ROI
  • 35-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -14.12% ROI

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (62/151) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .170 (8-for-47) against Pablo Lopez on low fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .274 — 94th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 34% of the time (360/1,046) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 34% (125/365) against Pablo Lopez this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.

Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (19/136) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (37/243) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (29/194) against Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 23% (86/369) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are 25-4 (.862) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.

The Marlins are just 1-33 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .081.

The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.

The Marlins are just 130-140 (.481) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 25-6 (.806) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .669.

The Mets are 23-4 (.852) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Mets are 27-13 (.675) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Mets are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .919.

Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,337 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (2,337 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .336 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,337 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Mets hitters have 184 extra-base hits out of 603 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Mets have scored first in 78% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Mets hitters have an OPS of 1.493 (22 PA’s) during extra innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .812.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.