- The Mets (52-31) are -165 favorites vs the Marlins (39-42)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (5-4), 2.96 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (6-5), 4.01 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Miami Marlins (+140) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-165) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 39-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 46-37 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -145 | O 7 +105 | +140 |
| Mets | -1.5 +120 | U 7 -125 | -165 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 32 games at home (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+8.45 Units / 60% ROI)
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
| Pablo Lopez | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games (+7.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 32 games (+6.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+5.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 34 games at home (+18.97 Units / 48% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 games (+13.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 34 games at home (+13.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 40-41 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -5.05% ROI).
- 39-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -5.56% ROI
- 40-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.73% ROI
- 38-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -6.35% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 46-37 against the Run Line (+9.2 Units / 9.2% ROI).
- 52-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.8 Units / 11.82% ROI
- 44-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 5.4% ROI
- 35-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -14.12% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 41% (62/151) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .170 (8-for-47) against Pablo Lopez on low fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .274 — 94th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 34% of the time (360/1,046) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 34% (125/365) against Pablo Lopez this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (19/136) against Chris Bassitt this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (37/243) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (29/194) against Chris Bassitt on pitches in the strike zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 23% (86/369) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are 25-4 (.862) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Marlins are just 1-33 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .081.
The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Marlins are just 130-140 (.481) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 25-6 (.806) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .669.
The Mets are 23-4 (.852) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Mets are 27-13 (.675) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Mets are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .919.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,337 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (2,337 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .336 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .646 (2,337 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets hitters have 184 extra-base hits out of 603 total hits (just 30%) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Mets have scored first in 78% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of 1.493 (22 PA’s) during extra innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .812.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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