Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Mets (52-32) are -175 favorites vs the Marlins (40-42)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (1-3), 4.24 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (9-4), 4.63 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Miami Marlins (+145) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-175) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 40-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 46-38 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -140O 8 -115+145
Mets -1.5 +115U 8 -105-175

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 12 games (+3.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.00 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 33 games at home (+10.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+9.90 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
J.D. Davis 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
James McCann 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
J.D. Davis 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
James McCann 0.5 -185 0.5 +130

Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
J.D. Davis 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
James McCann 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
Braxton Garrett 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+8.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 62 games (+5.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 33 games (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.40 Units / 69% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 35 games at home (+17.97 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games (+12.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+11.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 41-41 against the Run Line (-4.45 Units / -4.06% ROI).

  • 40-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -3.98% ROI
  • 40-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -1.7% ROI
  • 38-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -6.28% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 46-38 against the Run Line (+8.2 Units / 8.11% ROI).

  • 52-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.15 Units / 10.26% ROI
  • 44-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 5.33% ROI
  • 35-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -13.97% ROI

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (8/34) against Braxton Garrett — 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 95th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has not allowed a home run in any of the last 18.1 innings he’s appeared — Dennis Santana has the longest active streak at 48.0.

Braxton Garrett has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to June 23rd — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 8.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (11/20) against Braxton Garrett — tied for 11th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 90th Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .755 (37 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .426 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (34 Total Bases / 57 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .367 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .359 (46-for-128) against Carlos Carrasco versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .408 (20-for-49) against Carlos Carrasco on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — first Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

The Marlins are 26-4 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Marlins are just 110-12 (.902) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Marlins are just 131-140 (.483) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 3-26 (.103) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Mets are 44-10 (.815) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

The Mets are 25-18 (.581) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .482.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .291 (2,342 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have 645 strikeouts in 2,342 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .336 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (2,179 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Mets have scored first in 76% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .285 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Mets hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 24% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.