- The Mets (44-23) are -140 favorites vs the Marlins (28-35)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (6-2), 1.67 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (5-4), 4.00 ERA
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-140) on Sunday, June 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 28-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-28 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -190 | O 6.5 -105 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 6.5 -115 | -140 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 77.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Luis Guillorme | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -155 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 34-29 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 3.17% ROI).
- 28-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -12.77% ROI
- 32-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -1% ROI
- 30-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -6.88% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 39-28 against the Run Line (+12.8 Units / 15.95% ROI).
- 44-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.25 Units / 17.3% ROI
- 35-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.6 Units / 4.8% ROI
- 28-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.85 Units / -13.58% ROI
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (57/363) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .232 (32 Total Bases / 138 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — 100th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .108 (11 Total Bases / 102 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 98th Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .277 (88 Total Bases / 318 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 98th Percentile.
Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .307 SLG vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 87th Percentile and .467 vs left-handed batters this season (ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 16th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (33/208) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (17/110) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed a slugging percentage of .467 (63 Total Bases / 135 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 16th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Marlins are just 9-31 (.225) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Marlins are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Marlins are just 2-26 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 23-9 (.719) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Mets are 21-14 (.600) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 11-2 (.846) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 617 strikeouts in 2,215 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 151 strikeouts in 519 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 2 strikeouts in 3 PA’s (67%) against LHP over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .313 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 81% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,780 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Mets are batting .195 with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 19% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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