Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 19

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 19, 2022, 11:11 AM
  • The Mets (44-23) are -140 favorites vs the Marlins (28-35)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (6-2), 1.67 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt (5-4), 4.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on WPIX

The Miami Marlins (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-140) on Sunday, June 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 28-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-28 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -190O 6.5 -105+115
Mets -1.5 +155U 6.5 -115-140

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s matchup with 77.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+5.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 away games (+4.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+4.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+7.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 16 games (+5.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+5.40 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
    Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
    Luis Guillorme 0.5 +1250 0.5

    Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
    Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
    Luis Guillorme 0.5 -165 0.5 +115

    Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
    Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
    Luis Guillorme 0.5 +320 0.5 -550

    Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Chris Bassitt 6.5 +110 6.5 -155
    Sandy Alcantara 5.5 -120 5.5 -115
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 43 games (+6.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 19 of their last 34 away games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 26 games at home (+17.02 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 67 games (+16.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 26 games at home (+13.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games (+12.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+10.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 34-29 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 3.17% ROI).

    • 28-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -12.77% ROI
    • 32-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -1% ROI
    • 30-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -6.88% ROI

    Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 39-28 against the Run Line (+12.8 Units / 15.95% ROI).

    • 44-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.25 Units / 17.3% ROI
    • 35-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.6 Units / 4.8% ROI
    • 28-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.85 Units / -13.58% ROI

    Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (57/363) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

    Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .232 (32 Total Bases / 138 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — 100th Percentile.

    Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .108 (11 Total Bases / 102 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — 98th Percentile.

    Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .277 (88 Total Bases / 318 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 98th Percentile.

    Christopher Bassitt: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Chris Bassitt has allowed a just .307 SLG vs right-handed batters (10th best)– 87th Percentile and .467 vs left-handed batters this season (ninth worst among qualified SPs)– 16th Percentile.

    Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (33/208) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

    Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (17/110) against Chris Bassitt this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

    Chris Bassitt has allowed a slugging percentage of .467 (63 Total Bases / 135 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 16th Percentile.

    Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

    The Marlins are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.

    The Marlins are just 9-31 (.225) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

    The Marlins are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.

    The Marlins are just 2-26 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.

    Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

    The Mets are 23-9 (.719) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .509.

    The Mets are 21-14 (.600) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .491.

    The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Mets are 11-2 (.846) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

    Marlins hitters have 617 strikeouts in 2,215 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters have 151 strikeouts in 519 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters have 2 strikeouts in 3 PA’s (67%) against LHP over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

    Marlins hitters are slugging just .313 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.

    The Mets have scored first in 81% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

    Mets hitters are slugging just .379 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

    Mets hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,780 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    The Mets are batting .195 with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .169.

    The Marlins have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

    Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

    The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 19% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
  • Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Undisclosed, D10
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jesús Aguilar (Marlins): Undisclosed, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.