Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 20

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 20, 2022, 11:18 AM
  • The Mets (44-24) are -160 favorites vs the Marlins (29-35)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (3-5), 5.87 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (3-1), 3.60 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-160) on Monday, June 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 29-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-29 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -150O 8.5 -110+135
Mets -1.5 +125U 8.5 -110-160

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 73.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.10 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.55 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 16 games (+3.75 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 15 games (+3.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 17 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.05 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+6.40 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
    Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
    J.D. Davis 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000

    Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
    Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
    J.D. Davis 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 -185 0.5 +130

    Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
    Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
    Francisco Lindor 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
    J.D. Davis 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
    Jeff McNeil 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

    Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    David Peterson 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 35 away games (+6.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+4.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 27 games at home (+16.02 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 68 games (+14.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 27 games at home (+12.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 68 games (+11.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 35-29 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 4.26% ROI).

    • 29-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -10.97% ROI
    • 33-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.42% ROI
    • 30-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -8.34% ROI

    Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 39-29 against the Run Line (+11.8 Units / 14.52% ROI).

    • 44-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.8 Units / 15.51% ROI
    • 36-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 6.04% ROI
    • 28-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.95 Units / -14.87% ROI

    Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (70/246) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.

    Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 59% of the time (146/246) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (24/75) against Trevor Rogers in two-strike counts this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.

    Trevor Rogers has walked 20 of 162 batters (12%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

    David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    David Peterson has a strike rate of just 56% (289/513) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

    David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (65/137) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.

    Hitters have chased just 17 of David Peterson’s 87 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

    David Peterson has a strike rate of just 57% (395/688) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

    Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

    The Marlins are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

    The Marlins are just 28-29 (.491) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

    The Marlins are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.

    The Marlins are just 26-3 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .926.

    Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

    The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

    The Mets are 23-10 (.697) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

    The Mets are 21-14 (.600) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.

    The Mets are 11-2 (.846) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

    Marlins hitters have 618 strikeouts in 2,217 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters have 152 strikeouts in 521 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

    The Marlins are batting just .205 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

    The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

    Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,810 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (2,594 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.

    Mets hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,233 PA’s) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

    Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

    The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

    Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

    The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob deGrom (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Travis Jankowski (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • James McCann (Mets): Hamate, D10
  • Colin Holderman (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D15
  • Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Trevor May (Mets): Triceps, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): COVID-19, D10
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jesús Aguilar (Marlins): COVID-19, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

  • Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Mets vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


    Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

    At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

    About the Author

    BetMGM Betting

    Read More @BETMGM

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.