- The Mets (44-24) are -160 favorites vs the Marlins (29-35)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (3-5), 5.87 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (3-1), 3.60 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-160) on Monday, June 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 29-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-29 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 -110 | +135 |
| Mets | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -110 | -160 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s matchup with 73.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 35-29 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 4.26% ROI).
- 29-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -10.97% ROI
- 33-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.42% ROI
- 30-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -8.34% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 39-29 against the Run Line (+11.8 Units / 14.52% ROI).
- 44-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.8 Units / 15.51% ROI
- 36-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 6.04% ROI
- 28-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.95 Units / -14.87% ROI
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (70/246) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 59% of the time (146/246) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (24/75) against Trevor Rogers in two-strike counts this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 45% — fifth Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has walked 20 of 162 batters (12%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 56% (289/513) against right-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 47% (65/137) of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 17 of David Peterson’s 87 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 57% (395/688) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Marlins are just 28-29 (.491) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Marlins are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Marlins are just 26-3 (.897) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .926.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 21-8 (.724) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 23-10 (.697) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Mets are 21-14 (.600) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Mets are 11-2 (.846) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 618 strikeouts in 2,217 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 152 strikeouts in 521 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
The Marlins are batting just .205 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 82% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,810 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (2,594 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,233 PA’s) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
The Marlins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 18% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
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