• The Mets are -160 favorites vs the Marlins
• Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Marlins / Mets TV Channel: MATV | SNY

The Miami Marlins (+135) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-160) on May 31, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 pm in Flushing, Queens, NY.

This season, the Marlins are 26-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 22-35 ATS.

Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 3-5, 4.80 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Nolan McLean 2-4, 4.38 ERA

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 63.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Marlins vs Mets and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+14.00 Units / 70% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+9.20 Units / 92% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.65 Units / 44% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+13.27 Units / 53% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 9 games (+11.60 Units / 129% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 57% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 35 away games (+15.30 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 away games (+3.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 away games (+3.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 45 away games (+1.45 Units / 3% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games (+16.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+6.80 Units / 48% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+4.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.65 Units / 35% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 26-33 against the Run Line (-11.85 Units / -15.3% ROI).

• 26-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -8.4% ROI
• 35-21 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.6 Units / 17.74% ROI
• 21-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.35 Units / -26.94% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 22-35 against the Run Line (-11.7 Units / -17.79% ROI).

• 25-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.55 Units / -26.28% ROI
• 24-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -12.89% ROI
• 29-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 3.62% ROI

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 8-18 (.308) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Marlins are just 4-27 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.

The Marlins are just 2-12 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Marlins are just 22-86 (.204) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 6-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

The Mets are just 1-97 (.010) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Mets are 33-4 (.892) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

The Mets were 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters are slugging just .432 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of .262 (1,121 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .598 (666 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .649 (1,551 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .221 (1,098 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .607 (1,278 PA’s) with bases empty this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.26 (219.0 IP) on the road this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 98 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.

The Marlins have allowed 5.42 runs per game (141/26) on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 98 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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