Marlins vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Mets (97-57) are -225 favorites vs the Marlins (63-90)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (9-10), 3.88 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (15-6), 3.78 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-225) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 63-90 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-70 ATS.

Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -120O 7 -110+180
Mets -1.5 +100U 7 -110-225

Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 55 of his last 72 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 64 games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 44 games at home (+18.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+14.85 Units / 35% ROI)

Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +825 0.5 -3000

Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 -125 0.5 -115
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Francisco Lindor 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Jeff McNeil 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Nimmo 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Daniel Vogelbach 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Eduardo Escobar 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jeff McNeil 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 5.5 +100 5.5 -140
Pablo Lopez 4.5 -140 4.5 -105
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 86 games (+30.10 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 81 games (+12.90 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 away games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 70 games at home (+23.62 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 154 games (+12.85 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+11.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 116 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 97 of their last 154 games (+6.60 Units / 2% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 72-81 against the Run Line (-20.3 Units / -10.07% ROI).

  • 63-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.35 Units / -17.72% ROI
  • 67-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.5 Units / -10.93% ROI
  • 78-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 2.7% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 84-70 against the Run Line (+12.85 Units / 6.66% ROI).

  • 97-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.6 Units / 2.49% ROI
  • 80-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 3.58% ROI
  • 67-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.95 Units / -12.37% ROI

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (141/376) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (95/251) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (187/212) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 33% of the time (629/1,890) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .671 (53 Total Bases / 79 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 0 Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (93/320) against Carlos Carrasco since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (71 Total Bases / 106 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (71 Total Bases / 106 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Marlins are just 32-46 (.410) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Marlins are just 8-35 (.186) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Mets are 84-5 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Mets are 47-31 (.603) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Mets are 50-26 (.658) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Mets are 73-5 (.936) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.

Marlins hitters have 808 strikeouts in 2,933 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .632 (2,933 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,933 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Marlins are batting just .220 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Mets are batting .368 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Mets are batting .265 on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Mets have been successful on 60% of their hit & run attempts since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have walked 5 of 177 batters (3%) over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 56% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.