- The Mets (97-57) are -225 favorites vs the Marlins (63-90)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (9-10), 3.88 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco (15-6), 3.78 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-225) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Marlins vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 63-90 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-70 ATS.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -120 | O 7 -110 | +180 |
| Mets | -1.5 +100 | U 7 -110 | -225 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 57.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Avisail Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 55 of his last 72 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 42 of his last 64 games (+19.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 44 games at home (+18.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 55 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+14.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jeff McNeil | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -140 |
| Pablo Lopez | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 86 games (+30.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 81 games (+12.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+12.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 away games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 70 games at home (+23.62 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 154 games (+12.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games at home (+11.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 116 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 97 of their last 154 games (+6.60 Units / 2% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 72-81 against the Run Line (-20.3 Units / -10.07% ROI).
- 63-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.35 Units / -17.72% ROI
- 67-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.5 Units / -10.93% ROI
- 78-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 2.7% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 84-70 against the Run Line (+12.85 Units / 6.66% ROI).
- 97-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.6 Units / 2.49% ROI
- 80-67 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 3.58% ROI
- 67-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.95 Units / -12.37% ROI
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (141/376) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (95/251) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (187/212) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 33% of the time (629/1,890) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .671 (53 Total Bases / 79 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (93/320) against Carlos Carrasco since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (71 Total Bases / 106 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (71 Total Bases / 106 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 32-46 (.410) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Marlins are just 10-33 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are just 8-35 (.186) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 84-5 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Mets are 47-31 (.603) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Mets are 50-26 (.658) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Mets are 73-5 (.936) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 808 strikeouts in 2,933 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .632 (2,933 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,933 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Marlins are batting just .220 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .368 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Mets are batting .265 on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Mets have been successful on 60% of their hit & run attempts since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 5 of 177 batters (3%) over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Marlins have won just 18% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 56% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- Mychal Givens (Mets): Undisclosed, D15
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Raymond Hunter (Mets): Back, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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