- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Nationals starting pitcher: Joan Adon
- Watch the game on MASN
The Miami Marlins (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+125) on Thursday, August 31, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Marlins are 66-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 75-59 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +105 | O 8.5 -110 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -130 | U 8.5 -110 | +125 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 73.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 24 games (+17.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.20 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 38 games (+10.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+10.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+10.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 45% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games (+13.83 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.89 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+17.15 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 128 games (+12.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.69 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.55 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 58-75 against the Run Line (-32.3 Units / -18.27% ROI).
- 66-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.6 Units / -5.23% ROI
- 58-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.55 Units / -12.2% ROI
- 69-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 3.57% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 75-59 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 5.13% ROI).
- 62-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +24.15 Units / 17.66% ROI
- 62-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.75 Units / -6.61% ROI
- 65-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -1.69% ROI
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (501/1,044) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (292/605) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .193 (16-for-83) against Braxton Garrett on low fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 90th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (841/2,056) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (7/44) against Joan Adon over the past seven days (1 games) — 4th lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Joan Adon has a strikeout rate of just 14% (3 SO in 22 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 10th lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 23% — 18th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (5/18) against Joan Adon over the past seven days (1 games) — 5th lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.
Joan Adon has allowed an OPS of just .372 (22 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 games) — 10th best in NL over the last week; League Avg: .675 — 83rd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 94-24 (.797) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .869.
The Marlins are just 16-24 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are 7-56 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Marlins are 13-134 (.088) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 35-58 (.376) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 35-155 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Nationals are just 111-155 (.417) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 59-38 (.608) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 79 extra-base hits out of 294 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 70 walks in 1,120 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 513 extra-base hits out of 1,696 total hits (just 30%) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Nationals are just 2-12 (.143) against the run line (-63.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Nationals hitters have 235 extra-base hits out of 775 total hits (just 30%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Lane Thomas (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
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