Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 01, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Nationals (29-49) are -130 favorites vs the Marlins (34-40)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (3-6), 5.85 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (6-4), 3.82 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-130) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Nationals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 34-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-45 ATS.

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins+1.5 -175O 9.5 -120+105
Nationals -1.5 +145U 9.5 +100-130

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s matchup with 60.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jon Berti has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.40 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.95 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Josh Bell 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Juan Soto 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Luis Garcia 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Bell 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Juan Soto 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Luis Garcia 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Maikel Franco 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Nelson Cruz 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Josh Bell 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
Juan Soto 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Luis Garcia 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trevor Rogers 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+4.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.85 Units / 37% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 37-37 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -4.37% ROI).

  • 34-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -9.55% ROI
  • 38-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.55% ROI
  • 35-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -7.78% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-45 against the Run Line (-18.5 Units / -19.18% ROI).

  • 29-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.15 Units / -13.65% ROI
  • 40-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 1.5% ROI
  • 35-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -9.92% ROI

Opponents are hitting .445 (49-for-110) against Trevor Rogers in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .324 — first Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (40 Total Bases / 60 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .399 — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .791 (87 Total Bases / 110 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .542 — second Percentile.

Trevor Rogers has walked 19 of 120 batters (16%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 56% (329/588) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (27/86) against Josiah Gray in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (33/112) against Josiah Gray this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Josiah Gray has a strikeout rate of just 9% (6 SO in 65 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 12-36 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Marlins are just 15-24 (.385) on the road this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.

The Marlins are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Marlins are just 27-3 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are just 14-27 (.341) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Nationals are just 100-22 (.820) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Nationals are just 8-27 (.229) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.

The Nationals are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.

Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,308 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.

Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.

Nationals hitters have just 1,315 strikeouts in 6,272 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .332 (9,035 PA’s) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Nationals have grounded 230 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.

Nationals hitters have just 548 strikeouts in 2,763 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have walked 9 of 213 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Marlins pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have walked 289 of 3,037 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.