- The Nationals (29-49) are -130 favorites vs the Marlins (34-40)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (3-6), 5.85 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (6-4), 3.82 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Miami Marlins (+105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-130) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Nationals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 34-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-45 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -175 | O 9.5 -120 | +105 |
| Nationals | -1.5 +145 | U 9.5 +100 | -130 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Friday‘s matchup with 60.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Maikel Franco | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+6.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+4.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 65 games (+13.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.85 Units / 37% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 37-37 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -4.37% ROI).
- 34-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -9.55% ROI
- 38-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.55% ROI
- 35-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -7.78% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-45 against the Run Line (-18.5 Units / -19.18% ROI).
- 29-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.15 Units / -13.65% ROI
- 40-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 1.5% ROI
- 35-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -9.92% ROI
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .445 (49-for-110) against Trevor Rogers in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .324 — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (40 Total Bases / 60 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .399 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .791 (87 Total Bases / 110 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .542 — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has walked 19 of 120 batters (16%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 56% (329/588) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (27/86) against Josiah Gray in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (33/112) against Josiah Gray this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strikeout rate of just 9% (6 SO in 65 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 12-36 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Marlins are just 15-24 (.385) on the road this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Marlins are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Marlins are just 27-3 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 14-27 (.341) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 100-22 (.820) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Nationals are just 8-27 (.229) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Nationals are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .645 (2,308 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 1,315 strikeouts in 6,272 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .332 (9,035 PA’s) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Nationals have grounded 230 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.
Nationals hitters have just 548 strikeouts in 2,763 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 9 of 213 batters (4%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 54% against Marlins pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have walked 289 of 3,037 batters (10%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.