- The Marlins (35-40) are -115 favorites vs the Nationals (29-50)
- Marlins starting pitcher: Daniel Castano (0-1), 2.57 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jackson Tetreault (2-1), 4.23 ERA
- Watch the game on MASN
The Miami Marlins (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Saturday, July 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Marlins are 35-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-46 ATS.
Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 +100 | -115 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -120 | -105 |
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 84.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+8.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Maikel Franco | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Maikel Franco | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Nelson Cruz | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Victor Robles | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cesar Hernandez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Maikel Franco | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Castano | 2.5 -175 | 2.5 +120 |
| Jackson Tetreault | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+6.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+5.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 21 games (+0.80 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 66 games (+13.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.55 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 38-37 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -3.31% ROI).
- 35-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -8.22% ROI
- 38-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.54% ROI
- 35-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -7.69% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-46 against the Run Line (-19.5 Units / -20.01% ROI).
- 29-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -15% ROI
- 40-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 1.48% ROI
- 35-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -9.8% ROI
Daniel Castano: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Daniel Castano has limited playing time.
Jackson Tetreault: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jackson Tetreault has struck out just 13% (4/31) of left-handed batters he faced — 10th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 16th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (18/91) against Jackson Tetreault — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.
Jackson Tetreault has allowed an OPS of just .400 (31 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .666 — 89th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .138 (4-for-29) against Jackson Tetreault — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .226 — 83rd Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Marlins are just 28-3 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.
The Marlins are just 24-4 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Marlins are just 16-24 (.400) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 14-28 (.333) at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 3-41 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Nationals are just 8-45 (.151) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 29-44 (.397) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 789 strikeouts in 2,926 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Marlins are batting just .214 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have scored 0.96 runs per game (75/78) in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.40.
Nationals hitters have just 166 strikeouts in 941 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 554 strikeouts in 2,788 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals are batting .268 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (312.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
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