Marlins vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 2

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 02, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (35-40) are -115 favorites vs the Nationals (29-50)
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Daniel Castano (0-1), 2.57 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Jackson Tetreault (2-1), 4.23 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Miami Marlins (-115) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-105) on Saturday, July 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Marlins are 35-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 33-46 ATS.

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Marlins-1.5 +135O 9.5 +100-115
Nationals +1.5 -160U 9.5 -120-105

Marlins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 84.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Marlins and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.95 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Miguel Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+8.75 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Nationals vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Josh Bell 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Juan Soto 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Luis Garcia 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Maikel Franco 0.5 +425 0.5 -900

Nationals vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Luis Garcia 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Maikel Franco 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Nelson Cruz 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Victor Robles 0.5 -150 0.5 +105

Nationals vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Josh Bell 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Juan Soto 0.5 +130 0.5 -185
Luis Garcia 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Maikel Franco 0.5 +155 0.5 -225

Nationals vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Daniel Castano 2.5 -175 2.5 +120
Jackson Tetreault 3.5 +115 3.5 -165
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+6.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+5.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 21 games (+0.80 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 66 games (+13.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games (+7.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.55 Units / 22% ROI)

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 38-37 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -3.31% ROI).

  • 35-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -8.22% ROI
  • 38-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.45 Units / -0.54% ROI
  • 35-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -7.69% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 33-46 against the Run Line (-19.5 Units / -20.01% ROI).

  • 29-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -15% ROI
  • 40-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 1.48% ROI
  • 35-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -9.8% ROI

Daniel Castano has limited playing time.

Jackson Tetreault: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jackson Tetreault has struck out just 13% (4/31) of left-handed batters he faced — 10th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 16th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 20% (18/91) against Jackson Tetreault — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 29% — second Percentile.

Jackson Tetreault has allowed an OPS of just .400 (31 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 7th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .666 — 89th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .138 (4-for-29) against Jackson Tetreault — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .226 — 83rd Percentile.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

The Marlins are just 28-3 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Marlins are just 24-4 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.

The Marlins are just 16-24 (.400) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are just 14-28 (.333) at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Nationals are just 3-41 (.068) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Nationals are just 8-45 (.151) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 29-44 (.397) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

Marlins hitters have 175 strikeouts in 612 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have 641 strikeouts in 2,308 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have 789 strikeouts in 2,926 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Marlins are batting just .214 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Nationals have scored 0.96 runs per game (75/78) in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.40.

Nationals hitters have just 166 strikeouts in 941 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have just 554 strikeouts in 2,788 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Nationals are batting .268 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Marlins pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.63 (312.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Nationals vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Louis Head (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Pelvis, D10
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Nationals vs Marlins and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.